archived: 27 Aug - 5 Sept, 2006         Back                 Next

                        BATTLE FOR THE SENATE (Part 2) 

Last week, TPJ opened its coverage on the contests in the State Senate that it believes will determine if the Democratic Party can retain majority control of that chamber of the North Carolina General Assembly.  The reality for both Parties is that only seven seats will determine the issue.  Republicans will need to win five of the seven seats in to gain majority control. In TPJ’s estimation, Democrats, will lose, net, one seat and will retain solid majority control of the Senate.  

TPJ’s prognostications rely on three assumptions.  They are: 

1. Speaker of the House Jim Black is not indicted by the Federal Government.  In our informed estimation, the Speaker Black issue is not resonating with the electorate to the degree that Republicans and some in the mainstream media would contend.  However, an indictment would change the political landscape.
    

2. Democrats have a distinct fundraising edge over Republicans.  Democrats will need that advantage in the Districts that we highlight below.
    

3. Bush’s approval rating remains at 40% or below and the spread between his approval rating and disapproval rating remains at -18% or above.  Bush’s public standing will keep enthusiasm among many Republicans depressed, which effects turn out.  With no national races on the North Carolina ballot and only statewide judicial candidates at the head of the ticket, this election will be an exercise in turnout of the voters of both parties.

Last week, TPJ identified the three most vulnerable Senate seats for Democrats: 

 

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The next three Districts that could switch Parties are: 

Senator Dalton was elected in 1996 in District 46.  Dalton is an attorney from Rutherfordton, NC, who enjoys a highly favorable reputation in the legal community and among residents.  He holds Chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee.  Conventional wisdom would suggest that Sen. Dalton would not be vulnerable.   

District 46, however, has been trending Republican over the years and despite the fact that Sen. Dalton has been successively reelected, small shifts of public sentiment in an election with a very low turnout could have severe consequences in this District. 

Republicans have fielded a very credible candidate in Wes Westmoreland, a Cleveland County native who has lived in Rutherford County for 10 years. Westmoreland is President and founder of Westmoreland Printers, Inc. and a 1988 graduate of Gardner-Webb University.  He has served as Chair of the Cleveland County Republican Party for the past five years, and for the past three years as the vice-chair of the 10th District Republican Party.  Westmoreland has strong ties in the community, serving on the Board of Trustees at Gardner-Webb and is president of the Alumni Board. 

Yet, Republicans appear not to be pressing has hard as possible in this District.   While the Republican Party has been very active in its voter registration efforts in many Districts, there are little signs of effort in this District.  Since January 2006, Republicans have a net gain of less than 200 voter registrations. 

TPJ believes that Sen. Dalton will be reelected, but see our caveats at the lead of this article.  Adverse developments for the Democrats could shift this District.

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Sen. John Kerr is one of the stalwart Democratic Party leaders in the State Senate.  Republicans could consider it an important coup if this District could be taken.   

Unlike District 46 above, Republicans appear to be mounting an aggressive effort to win this District and Democrats appear to be making a determined effort to retain the District.  

Republicans have nominated Todd Siebels.  He is a former Marine and small business owner, Siebels Group, an insurance and financial services firm. He has been highly active in his community: Founder of the East Carolina Aktion Club, a civic club for adults with developmental disabilities, Board of Directors for Pitt County Council on Aging, Pitt Aging Coalition, United Way Executive Allocations Committee for Youth Services, Immediate Past Lt. Governor for Kiwanis and Kiwanis Marketing/Public Relations Chairman for North Carolina and South Carolina. 

Siebels’ fundraising does not, at this point of the election cycle, appear to be overwhelming.  He raised just $3,900.00 in the 2^nd quarter.  Sen. Kerr had $149,425.00 cash on hand at the end of the 2^nd Quarter report.   

Despite the fundraising imbalance, which may simply mean that the Republican Party has not yet infused funds, voter registration since January may more clearly reflect the ground battle that is being waged.  As the numbers below reflect, both Parties have mounted serious voter registration efforts.  Democrats obviously have a broader based effort, with a positive number of new registrations in all three counties while Republicans have lost registration in two of the three counties. 

Republicans appear to be hedging their election on Pitt County, where both Parties appear equally matched in the effort to secure new voters.   

Given the advantages of incumbency and fundraising, Sen. Kerr has the advantage in this District.  Given the fact that Democrats are obviously active on the ground registering new voters in greater numbers than Republicans, Sen. Kerr should retain this District.

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