archived: 27 Aug - 5 Sept, 2006 Back Next
UPDATED: August 29, 2006
ZOUNDS!
Since TPJ’s previous report on Bush’s approval rating, two new polls (highlighted in yellow) have been released. Consulting our Magic 8 Ball for clarification, the response was “Zounds!”
Of the last four polls released (in bold):
TPJ’s monthly average is up less than one-half of a point, the same as in July. While the polls differ rather significantly in Bush’s level of support; 36% vs. 32%, Bush’s approval rating has flattened over the previous two months. We reiterate our estimate that Bush’s approval rating is in proximity to 39%.
Another trend also appears. At the same time that Bush’s approval rating is up a fraction of a point, an insignificant rise, Bush’s disapproval rating is up over July by almost +1.5%.
In trying to project where Bush’s approval rating will be as the mid-term elections near, it is difficult to conceive that his approval ratings will increase drastically as long as the attitudes of those disapproving continue to harden.
|
|
Approve |
Trail Mo |
Disapprove |
No Opinion |
Spread |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Newsweek |
8/24-25/06 |
36 |
|
56 |
8 |
-20 |
|
CBS/New York Times |
8/17-21/06 |
36 |
|
57 |
7 |
-21 |
|
CNN |
8/18-20/06 |
42 |
|
57 |
1 |
-15 |
|
USA/Gallup |
8/18-20/06 |
42 |
|
57 |
1 |
-15 |
|
Newsweek |
8/10-11/06 |
38 |
|
55 |
7 |
-17 |
|
Gallup |
8/7-10/06 |
37 |
|
59 |
4 |
-22 |
|
FOX/Opinion Dynamics |
8/8-9/06 |
36 |
|
56 |
8 |
-20 |
|
AP-Ipsos |
8/7-9/06 |
33 |
|
64 |
3 |
-31 |
|
ABC/Washington Post |
8/3-6/06 |
40 |
|
58 |
2 |
-18 |
|
CNN |
8/2-3/06 |
40 |
|
59 |
2 |
-19 |
|
L.A. Times/Bloomberg |
7/28 - 8/1/06 |
40 |
|
58 |
2 |
-18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38.18 |
0.48 |
57.82 |
4.09 |
-19.64 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
July Average |
37.70 |
0.49 |
56.40 |
5.90 |
-18.70 |
|
|
June Average |
37.21 |
3.05 |
56.79 |
5.93 |
-19.57 |
|
|
May Average |
34.17 |
-1.58 |
60.33 |
5.91 |
-26.17 |
|
|
April Average |
35.75 |
-1.35 |
57.75 |
6.82 |
-22.00 |
|
|
March Average |
37.10 |
-2.54 |
57.30 |
5.80 |
-20.20 |
|
|
February Average |
39.64 |
-2.42 |
55.21 |
5.23 |
-15.57 |
|
|
January Average |
42.07 |
1.32 |
53.27 |
5.07 |
-11.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December Average |
40.75 |
2.83 |
54.25 |
6.33 |
-13.50 |
|
|
November Average |
37.92 |
-1.93 |
56.46 |
6.09 |
-18.54 |
|
|
October Average |
39.86 |
-1.46 |
55.07 |
5.58 |
-15.21 |
|
|
September Average |
41.31 |
-1.91 |
53.75 |
4.81 |
-12.44 |
|
|
August Average |
43.22 |
-2.38 |
52.33 |
4.33 |
-9.11 |
|
|
July Average |
45.60 |
0.60 |
49.00 |
5.30 |
-3.40 |
|
|
June Average |
45.00 |
-1.50 |
49.83 |
5.33 |
-4.83 |
|
|
May Average |
46.50 |
-1.10 |
48.33 |
5.17 |
-1.83 |
|
|
April Average |
47.60 |
-1.28 |
49.00 |
3.20 |
-1.40 |
|
|
March Average |
48.88 |
-1.13 |
46.00 |
5.13 |
2.88 |
|
|
February Average |
50.00 |
-1.00 |
46.29 |
3.71 |
3.71 |
|
|
January Average |
51.00 |
|
44.71 |
4.00 |
6.29 |
Furthermore, there is a bit of a conundrum developing. Bush’s approval ratings for handling the war in Iraq remain lower than his overall approval rating and approval has remained essentially mired at 30%.
|
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Aug. 17-21, 2006. N=1,206 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). RV = registered voters |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?" |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Unsure |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
ALL adults |
30 |
65 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Republicans |
60 |
35 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
| ||||