archived: 23 - 29 Jul, 2006         Back                 Next

SEN. DOLE 

Sen. Dole is receiving low ratings for her work on behalf of the Republican Senatorial Committee. The story: 

The tables were loaded with untouched platters of food as Sen. Elizabeth Dole rose last week to introduce her party's Senate candidate from Nebraska. Sixty people were supposed to be at the fund-raiser, but Dole, the host and leader of the Republican effort to hold the Senate this fall, found just 18 people scattered across a vast expanse of empty carpet.

 

Dole has been a nearly unstoppable star for 25 years: the first female Cabinet secretary, the head of the Red Cross and a popular senator from North Carolina, never mind the wife of Bob Dole, the former Senate majority leader and Republican presidential nominee.

 

But going into the most competitive congressional election in 12 years, some Republicans say Dole is faltering in her latest job, as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which raises money, recruits candidates, plots strategy and shapes the party's message.

 

She has been lapped in fundraising by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The latest filing, on Thursday, showed Democrats with $37.7 million on hand, compared with $19.9 million for Republicans.

 

If Senate Republicans are unable to close the gap, it will force the Republican National Committee to step in with financial support in tight Senate races - it had $45 million on hand as of Thursday - creating tensions with House Republicans who want that money used to help them.

 

For all her star power, Dole, who turns 70 on Saturday, has not had much of a public profile this year, leaving her party at a disadvantage in parrying attacks from her assertive Democratic counterpart, Sen. Charles Schumer of New York.

 

She failed to find strong candidates to run against vulnerable Senate Democrats in at least four states, a shortcoming that could also be partly attributed to the White House, which has often played a crucial role in candidate recruitment.

 

However the blame is apportioned, the party has been left without a high-profile candidate who can take advantage of the few opportunities open to Republicans this year, like Connecticut, where Sen. Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat, has been distracted by a challenge from the left and said he would run as an independent if he lost the primary.

 

Dole also could not head off a brutal primary battle in Rhode Island over the seat held by Lincoln Chafee, who is being challenged from the right, a fight that Republicans fear may alienate conservatives and hand the seat to the Democrats.

 

In interviews, Republican senators voiced support for Dole but made it clear they were nervous about the months ahead.

 

"I'm going to say it's going well because at this point in time, that's what you need to say," said Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi, who earlier this year publicly criticized Dole's recruiting efforts.

 

Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, who has already made known that he wants to succeed Dole when she finishes her term at the end of the year, said senators pressed Dole about the committee's financial situation at a lunch she held for them on Tuesday.

 

Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., whom she defeated by one vote for the job, said: "A lot of people had questions about cash on hand. We have to accelerate that."

 

Other Republicans had harsher views.

 

"Look, we have a lot of Republicans who are on the ropes; this has not been a spectacular year of recruiting; we are way behind in fund raising," said Pat Toomey, the president of the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee.

 

"I don't see a lot to brag about."    

While this is a national story, Sen. Dole’s performance raises interesting questions about her potential candidacy for reelection.  First, a perceived inadequate performance in her national role does diminish her “star” quality.  Second, Democrats should note that Sen. Dole spends little time in North Carolina.  She has countered that she is in Washington representing North Carolina.  As the article makes clear, Sen. Dole is spending substantial time looking after Republicans in other states rather than tending to the needs and concerns of her home state constituents.  Third, it gives Democrats the opportunity to point out that Sen. Dole has not been extremely effective in representing her home state.  

In sum, Sen. Dole’s seat may not be as “safe” as some might imagine.

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                        THE BLEEDING CONTINUES 

TPJ returns to an issue of paramount concern to North Carolina Democrats – voter registration.  The North Carolina State Board of Elections has released registration data for July 2006.  The bleeding continues. 

Republicans have gained on Democrats in registration in every month that TPJ has charted this year.  For examples; from April to May, Republicans gained 563 registrations net statewide, from May to June, 623 and from June to July the margin increased to 658.  If the trends since January 2006 continue unabated, Republicans will increase their voter registration in contrast with Democrats by more than 8,000 statewide.   

This is the latest county by country breakdown of registration.  The Dem/Repub Change columns reflect the raw number of registrations gained or lost in a County from January 2006.  A party can lose registrations for many reasons including deaths, voters leaving a county or changing Party affiliation.  For either Party, a loss in registration is reflected as a negative number; for example, Democrats in Alexander County lost 60 registrations shown as -60. A negative number would mean that there were insufficient new Democratic Party registrants to offset those removed from the voter lists.  The final column, “Dem +/-“ measures the relative change in position of the Parties to each other since January 2006.  For example; in Alexander County, Democrats lost 60 registrations while Republicans gained 74 registrations since January.  The relative net effect is Democrats lost 134 registrations to Republicans.  This number is reflected as -134.