UPDATED:  NOVEMBER 5, 2006

                        THE HOUSE  

TPJ goes out on a limb and issues its projections for US House races.  We go even further out on the limb and, instead of giving a range of pickups, we call each race.  At TPJ our philosophy is just to lay it on the line and accept that we will probably be wrong in some of these races.  

In our estimation, Democrats pick up a net of 29 seats, fourteen more than necessary to achieve majority control of the US House.  The US House will have 232 Democrats and 212 Republicans if TPJ’s projections hold true. 

Two caveats.  First, most of the US House races are lightly polled thereby making highly accurate projections nearly impossible.  Second, even where polling has been conducted some of the contradictory results and purported swings in voter preferences have mystified even professional pollsters. 

The bottom line as of Saturday afternoon is that 54 Districts have candidates polling within 7% of each other.  This is the most competitive Districts in recent history.  

TPJ projects that Democrats will accomplish a first.  If our projections are correct, Democrats will, for the first time not lose a single seat in the US House.  The most threatened seats are Barrow in Georgia and Bean in Illinois.  Bush just appeared in Barrow’s District late this week – a clear sign that they believe Barrow can be defeated. If Democrats can hold both of these seats, we believe Democrats will not lose a seat and make history.  

Many of these races are very close.  We have given the edge to incumbent Republicans in some 8 cases in which there is an equal argument that the Democrat challenger will win.  Independent voters have been breaking towards the Democrats.  If that momentum continues, the Party could conceivably pick up a total of 35+ seats.  TPJ’s projection of a net gain of 29 seats is a bit more conservative than some professional observers.  For example, at Electoral Projection, the editors are predicting a net gain of 37 seats.  It could be! 

Every election holds surprises and upsets that were not anticipated and TPJ expects those on Tuesday.  However, Democrats will have a very good election night and majority control of the US House.

                        THE SENATE 

On Thursday, TPJ made its predictions for the US Senate.  Since publication, polling in Montana has suggested that Tester is in a tighter race.  We hold to our prediction that Democrats will carry Montana and a net of six seats necessary for majority control.

We candidly acknowledge that the races in Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee are so close that these states could fall to either Party and that GOTV will be a critical factor in all three.  

Democrats will lose only one seat, to Sen. Lieberman, who is now running as an independent, but promises to caucus with the Democrats.  New Jersey, which had been so close, has finally moved towards the Democrats.  As the chart below depicts, Mendez has added about 8% to his base from September 18 while Republican Kean has struggled to add 1% to his base.  

Republicans clearly lose Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Tester looks in solid position in Montana; having held a consistent lead over the last six weeks. Sen. Burns is well below 50%, and for an incumbent at this stage of the election being both below 50% and failing to lead the opponent is historically a sure sign of impending defeat.  In Rhode Island, Sen. Chafee is well below Democrat Whitehouse.  Sen. Chafee has run a last minute add in which he personally talks of his record of opposition to Bush on a number of issues, while he candidly acknowledges that citizens of Rhode Island are telling him that they want to sent Bush a “message.”   Whitehouse will be delivering that message, not Sen. Chafee. 

The US Senate contest is essentially down to three states; Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri. TPJ predicts Democrats will win Virginia and Missouri while Tennessee probably remains in Republican control.  While all three states are polling within the margins of error in almost every poll, Democrats appear to have momentum going into the final days. 

Momentum in close races is critical.  As reflected in the article below, THE GOVERNORS, undecided voters are generally breaking towards the Democrats.  In the Senate races, every contested race in which undecided voters have broken in the past week, save Tennessee, has been towards Democrats. As a general proposition, undecided voters nationally break toward or away from a Party. 

Virginia is a prime example.  Democrat Webb has trailed Sen. Allen for most of the race.  From the chart below, note that over the past six weeks Webb has moved up slightly in the polls while Sen. Allen has, at best, remained flat.  Momentum has been more pronounced in the last week.  Sen. Allen, the incumbent, is below 50% and now trailing Webb.  Advantage Webb.  

In Missouri, Democrat McCaskill is the candidate showing momentum over the past week.  Incumbent Republican Sen. Talent has remained flat.  We note that Republicans are putting Bush on the line in Missouri.  Bush, who has avoided campaigning in critical districts, is going to Missouri in the final days.  It is a clear sign that Republicans are trying to rally their base supporters.  Democrats are countering with Sen. Obama on Sunday in Saint Louis.  One senses that Republicans are putting all the cards on the table in order to retain majority control and Democrats are countering.  The slightest advantage in momentum appears to be with McCaskill.  

Ford in Tennessee has waged a marvelous campaign.  Corker appears to have the slightest edge in momentum and with a well established Republican GOTV organization in this State, the advantage is with Corker.