archived: 1 - 7 Oct, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED: October 5, 2006

                        BUSH’S APEX?   

Two new polls have been released since our last report and they are the first two polls in October. Both peg Bush’s approval rating at 39%, down from September polling results.    

Last week is speculated that Bush’s approval rating had, perhaps, reached its apex.  Both polls below suggest this could be true.  It is obvious that Woodward’s book and the Republican leadership’s dreadful failure to take action against predatory sexual conduct with Congressional pages have taken their toll. 

Two polls do not a trend make.  In particular, we note that the NBC/WSJ poll is that of registered voters.  As a general rule, a “likely voter” poll would be a bit more Republican.  However, the Republican Congressional scandal is just being absorbed by voters.  We would expect the next several polls to be released will reflect adverse public reaction as well.  In addition, all recent polling suggests that more Americans disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.  The force and impact of these issues suggest that Bush’s polling numbers, while not falling dramatically, will not improve. 

The best news is that Bush’s rising approval rating may now have resolved on the issues of Iraq and Republican Congressional scandal.  Bush’s disapproval rating remains in the mid-50% range.  There is little room for Bush to maneuver absent developments favorable to him.  We do not see any on the immediate horizon; but the Republican leadership’s failure to protect young pages in their trust was unforeseen as well.   

With an approximate 40% approval rating, Bush will not be generally positive factor for Republicans heading into the final days of the election.  IF Bush’s approval ratings sag into the mid-30% range over the next several weeks, his falling public support will give the Democrats even greater opportunities in the Congressional elections.  

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UPDATED:  OCTOBER 3, 2006

                        THE RUB                       

Democrats are increasingly excited at the prospects of the mid-term elections.  As TPJ documents in the articles below, Democrats could make significant gains against the Republicans.  Democrats could regain control of the US House of Representatives and have an outside prospect of recapturing majority control of the US Senate.  

The rub is that none of that may happen.  At this juncture, Democrats are contesting more House Districts than we have contested in years.  Democrats will pick up Senate seats.  But contests and pick ups do not make majority control of either House of Congress.  At least net victories are needed in the House and six net victories are needed in the Senate.   

Democrats need to heed two other considerations.  First, polls are just polls.  They are only relatively accurate, not precise predictions of what will happen.  Some Democrats view a poll showing a 3% poll lead as a sign of victory.  It is actually nothing more than an indication that the Democrat could be elected.  

Many of the critical races across the United States are very close.  US Senate races in Montana, Tennessee and Missouri are prime examples.  Whether Democrats do in fact win or lose will be a function of voter turn out (GOTV).  It is that simple.  

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies (Cook/RT) has published a poll that makes a very critical point.  

Cook/RT finds that Bush’s approval rating among all registered voters is 40% approve, 50% disapprove.  That is generally consistent with other publicly released polls.  

Cook/RT further refined the poll to determine both “likely voters” and “most likely voters.”  Among “likely voters” carefully note that Bush’s approval rating is still 40% but those disapproving climbs a bit to 54%.  But among those “most likely to vote,” Bush approval rating and disapproval rating are 47%.   

In TPJ’s estimation, the Cook/RT poll demonstrates that Republicans and Democrats are holding true to their parties and the base of each Party is “most likely to vote.”  Our view is circumstantially confirmed by the fact that Cook/RT found that 81% of Republicans approve of Bush while 78% of Democrats disapprove of Bush.  Of the 81% of the Republicans who approve of Bush’s performance in office, 55% “strongly approve.”  Of the 78% of Democrats who disapprove of Bush, 66% “strongly disapprove” of Bush’s performance in office.  

If this election becomes a “base turnout” vote, the Cook/RT report strongly suggests that many contests will be extremely close.  Republicans in many of the contested States have built a much stronger GOTV organization than Democrats.  Proof of their strength is evidenced by their victory in Ohio in 2004, which Democrats had to win but could not match the Republican turn out effort in central Ohio. 

IF, and only IF, Democrats can increase voter turn out beyond the base of each Party does the change of victory increase.  Two other questions asked by Cook/RT demonstrate TPJ’s hypothesis:  

Among all registered voters, Democrats have a 3% advantage; among those “most likely to vote” a 3% advantage, but among “likely voters” a 9% advantage.  

Cook/RT also asked this salient question: 

Again note that has “likely voters” split 6% in favor of the Democrats as opposed to a mere 2% s split for Democrats among the “most likely voters.”   Equally compelling is that among those who did not vote in 2004, Democrats would have a 6% advantage. 

At this juncture, TPJ does not believe that a political tsunami is forming for Democrats in 2006 as it did for Republicans in 1994 (actually the 1994 rout was based on an increase Republican turn out nationally of about 5%).  It still could.  But at the moment, Bush’s approval rates are rising even though that has not effected US Senate races thus far.  But in many critical races, the polls are suggesting very close races and Democrats are certainly not substantially out polling their Republican opponents in many critical races.  

If there is no tsunami, Democrats will have to win the old fashioned way probably best expressed by Abraham Lincoln.  When asked his advice on how to win elections, he quipped, “Find them; vote them.”   

TPJ’s recommendation to Democrats, wherever they may live, is to volunteer for your local GOTV effort every day you can.  If there is not GOTV in your area, pick up the phone, call your friends and associates and ask them to vote.     

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                        GREAT CAESAR’S GHOST!  

Elon University (EU) of North Carolina has regularly conducts polls in North Carolina as a part of its educational experience for students and as a community service.  The poll is generally respected for its quality and accuracy of its results. 

EU recently conducted a poll in North Carolina that contained some surprising results; results that have national implications for Democrats.  The poll is of citizens 18 years age or older, not registered voters or likely voters.  

To understand the poll results, TPJ readers should understand that North Carolina has a very large military presence in eastern North Carolina. The military has major installations at Ft. Bragg and Cherry Point.  The EU poll (EUP), as a part of a larger poll, specifically polled current and former military personnel as to various issues.   

As further background, North Carolina is a “red state” in national politics.  Gore lost in 2000 and Kerry did not improve on Democratic Party performance in 2004 (neither ever mounted a campaign here).  Both US Senators (Sens. Dole and Burr) are Republican and a majority of Congressmen are Republican.  NC is, however, a “blue state” in partisan State offices.  The Governor is Democrat and both chambers of the General Assembly are majority Democrat (just barely in the House).   

EUP’s results have Bush’s overall approval/disapproval rating at 45% - 49%, relatively consistent with TPJ’s estimation of Bush’s national average; 41% - 54% and considering that NC is a “red state” on national races. On Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, however, EUP shows North Carolinians disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war (38% to 56.8%) 

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq? (probe) 

This is consistent with recent national polling on the issue.