archived: 15 - 21 Oct, 2006         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  OCTOBER 19, 2006

                        THE DEAN  

Gov. Dean’s 50 State Strategy, assaulted by the DLC and the DCCC, is looking prophetic.  James Carville, certainly no ally of Gov. Dean, suggested just days ago that prospects for Democrats appeared so favorable in US House races that the Democratic Party should borrow  5 to 10 million dollars to fund the ever growing number of races that Democrats are putting into play.  

The Democrats are doing just that.  Charlie Cook thinks it is the right strategy (emphasis added): 

For Rahm Emanuel and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it's time to swing for the fences. On a conference call last week, Carville noted that if he were directing the Democrats he would go to the bank and borrow $5 million and put that into the second- and third-tier races -- races 20 through 50 -- that have received little if any support up until now, because they looked like long shots (or in some cases, no-shots) until this environment changed. My only disagreement with Carville is that I would borrow $10 million, up against future receipts, and put $500,000 in each of 20 races, and shift resources from the first 20 to the next 10, effectively going after 50 GOP-held districts. My guess is that the top 20 targets for Democrats will somehow find money from Washington and a PAC community.

Nobody is saying that Democrats will be picking up 50 seats, or even 40 seats. But could this hit 25 or 30 or 35 seats in the House? Absolutely. Democratic voters are spitting nails and can't wait to vote while their Republican counterparts are showing signs of despondency and may be impervious to party pleas to turn out and vote, no matter how elaborate the program is. That's how midterm election debacles occur: disproportionate turnout.   

TPJ concurs with the strategy, even though it is not one without risk.  IF Democrats accumulate the debt and for unforeseen reasons do not regain majority control of the US House, Democrats will be demoralized. Repaying the debt will be difficult and will siphon funds from 2008.  We simply need to assume the risks and forge victory in November.   

At the beginning of this election cycle, Democrats believed they would be fortunate to regain majority control of the US House; a net pick up of 15 seats.  All of the national observers are predicting that will happen.  Democrats now talk of winning 25 to 30 seats, effectively devastating the Republicans in the House.  Heady days; and Gov. Dean is largely responsible for implementing a 50 state strategy when most Democrats; including Carville and Emanuel wanted to focus just on the “winnable” districts. 

Democrats, if the election plays out as predictions stand today, owe thanks to Gov. Dean.

                        DEWINE GONE BAD  

The undecided voters in Ohio have largely “broke” in the past four days.  They broke towards the Democrats.  The US Senate race in Ohio had been very static for almost two months with Brown moving between 47% and 47% and DeWine holding rather constant at 40% to 42%. 

All of that changed over the weekend.  Brown picked up some 5% to 6% in a matter of days.  Carefully note that while Brown’s numbers entered into new territory, DeWine’s support has remained unchanged.   

Absent some unexpected critical event, Brown is now clearly favored to pick up this Republican seat.  While no race is over until the votes are counted; TPJ moves Ohio from tossup/lean Democrat to likely Democrat.  Coupled with Pennsylvania, discussed below, it appears that two States down and Democrats have four to go to regain majority control of the US Senate.   

                        A REPUBLICAN VIEW 

Robert Novak, certainly a conservative, is predicting that Democrats will recapture control of the US House.  He believes Democrats will pick up 20 seats, five more than needed for majority control.  His rankings (highlighting added): 

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UPDATED:  OCTOBER 17, 2006

                        SANTORUM DOWN                   

Updating TPJ’s assessments of the US Senate races below; we noted that over the weekend the Republican National Committee and the Republican Senatorial Committee, both of which are pouring millions of dollars into defending vulnerable Republican seats have no plans to buy ads for Sen. Santorum in Pennsylvania.  

The Republican Party may be signaling it's own doubts about its incumbent. The RNC and the National Republican Senatorial committee have made no plans to buy ads on Mr. Santorum's behalf in the final three and a half weeks of this race. Perhaps suggesting that they have begun losing confidence in whether or not their number three leader in the GOP can actually hang on to the seat . . . .  

With polls consistently showing that Casey, the Democratic Party challenger, has a 9% lead, Republicans are assessing that this race is not winnable.    

For Democrats, it is one seat down and five more to majority control.                        

                        REPUBLICAN LEVEES  

Confirming TPJ’s earlier predictions, Republicans fundraisers are abandoning their candidates at any level in order to push even more money into races they must win to maintain majority control of one or both Houses of Congress.  It is readily apparent that Democrats are going to make gains in both the US House and US Senate.  The question is whether Democrats can pick up enough seats to win majority control in one or both chambers.  Republicans are feverishly attempting to construct levees in enough states to keep the Democratic storm from swamping the control.   

We covered this topic initially in FIRE WALLS (scroll down).  

In Ohio, Republican candidates for Governor and in two Congressional Districts are no longer running television advertisements; a sure sign the Republican Party believes these races cannot be won: 

"As races change, dynamics change," said Ed Patru, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "We're not going to continue spending money in races where we're significantly ahead and, conversely, in some races if it looks to be out of reach, you're not going to dump a bunch of money into it."

In recent days, the committee pulled advertising it had planned in the race between Republican Craig Foltin and Democrat Betty Sutton for Brown's open House seat, which the GOP initially thought it could wrest from Democrats. The committee also viewed the seat being vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland, who is running for governor, as a potential gain, but has backed away from that hope. . . .

Meanwhile, after an aggressive early advertising push, Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell, Ohio's secretary of state, has disappeared from the airwaves - a surprising turn of events for the leading candidate on the party's ticket.

A one-time strategy called for the RGA to air its own ads in support of Blackwell, but the governor's group appears to have written off the state.

In a letter to supporters earlier this month, the group's chairman, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, listed Iowa, Maine, Oregon, Illinois, Arkansas and Michigan as the only states with targeted governor's races. 

In the all important Ohio Senate race, news reports conflict as to whether or not national Republicans are withdrawing support from Sen. DeWine.  Given that Democratic Party challenger Rep. Brown has, at best, a five percent lead in the polls, we doubt that Republicans will risk not funding this race.  It should also be noted that DeWine’s campaign already enjoys a substantial financial lead over Rep. Brown: 

Mr. DeWine has proved to be a successful fund-raiser on his own, and, with $4.5 million on hand, already enjoys a large financial advantage over his Democratic opponent, Representative Sherrod Brown; he is not dependent on financial support to keep campaigning. The Republican National Committee and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee have already spent $4.6 million on his race; party officials said they concluded that there were now simply more opportune races to focus on. 

While the Republican National Committee and the Republican Senatorial Committee may be withdrawing financial support, DeWine has the funds to make a race until the end.  TPJ’s assessment is that Republican strategists have simply assessed that the levees in other states necessary to their defense need funds more desperately than DeWine, who is in a position to finish. 

In Texas, Democrats will apparently pick up disgraced former Rep. Tom Delay’s seat: 

National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs, according to state Republican chairwoman Tina Benkiser. So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Lampson, [the Democratic Party candidate] had $2.2 million to spend as of June 30. 

Translated:  Democrats will win the Ohio governorship; Democrats will hold two Ohio Congressional seats Republicans thought they could pick up from Democrats and Democrats pick up a Congressional seat in Texas.  The US Senate seat in Ohio looks promising for Democrats, but the race is on to the finish. 

The transfer of money from losing candidates to contested races is a political art form and TPJ readers can expect more such news.  What is surprising is that Republicans are abandoning races in such traditional Republican states.  

Republicans are conceding that Democrats will pick up seats in the US House, US Senate and in Governors.  They are feverishly putting sandbags into the levees to block Democrats from majority control in the House and Senate.

                        BEWARE THE IDES OF OCTOBER  

Two new polls since TPJ’s Sunday report, highlighted in red, and Bush is down again.  What impresses immediately is that Bush’s “disapproval” rating, +57.85%, is the 2^nd highest average we have ever recorded.  Only the May 2006 average is higher.

In our opinion, Bush’s deteriorating approval and disapproval ratings are a clear indication that the Democrats have been successful in “nationalizing” the election around Bush’s failed policies, particularly in Iraq.  Public sentiment is hardening, which could be a clear signal that the electorate is about to switch political leadership in Congress.

We clearly state that there is NO direct correlation between presidential approval/disapproval and the number of seats that a Party wins or loses.  However, for millions of voters who disapprove of a President so strongly, the spread is still over 20%, change will be a feature of this election if these trends hold.

Republicans have build their Congressional majorities through effective use of redistricting believing that carving one Party dominant Districts will limit disastrous changes in Party control.  The 2006 mid-term election will test the Republican hypothesis.