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archived: 3 - 9 Sep, 2006 Back Next
IT’S ALRIGHT MA – I’M ONLY BLEEDING! North Carolina Democrats continue to bleed voter registrations. The State Board of Elections has just published voter registration numbers for September. First, the bottom line is an old refrain, Republican registrations increased over Democratic registrations by 1,226 registrations. This increase is the largest monthly increase for the period surveyed – April through September. Second, Republicans have a net gain of 7,652 registrations since January 2006. This chart reflects the bleeding that is growing in intensity.
Another perspective is to look at momentum on a county by county basis. The chart below shows the net gain by Party for August and September. (A red number with a minus (-) number means that Democrats fell behind by that number or stated conversely, Republicans gained by that number.) Comparing August to September, Republicans gained advantage in 75 counties during the month, no change was recorded in 2 counties and Democrats gained in only 23 counties. A gain can be either a) adding net registrations to an existing advantage or b) reducing the dominant Party’s advantage from the previous month. For example, Democrats in Vance County had a net advantage of 354 registrations in 2006 as of August and a 394 in September, a net gain of 40 registrations in the past month. The momentum would be “D” for Democrat. An example of cutting into an existing Party’s lead is Buncombe County. Democrats in Buncombe County had a net gain of 282 registrations as of August but that number fell to 228 in September. Republicans gained a net of 54 registrations in the month; therefore the momentum would be “R” for Republican.
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