Tarheel Dems

archived: 3 - 9 Sep, 2006         Back                 Next

                        IT’S ALRIGHT MA – I’M ONLY BLEEDING!
                        - Bob Dylan  

North Carolina Democrats continue to bleed voter registrations.   

The State Board of Elections has just published voter registration numbers for September.  First, the bottom line is an old refrain, Republican registrations increased over Democratic registrations by 1,226 registrations.  This increase is the largest monthly increase for the period surveyed – April through September. Second, Republicans have a net gain of 7,652 registrations since January 2006. 

This chart reflects the bleeding that is growing in intensity.   

 

Democratic Registration

Democratic Monthly Increase

Republican Registration

Republican Monthly Increase

Republican Cumulative Net Increase 2006

Republican Month to Month  Net Increase Since April

January

2496798

 

1881179

 

 

 

April

2503314

6516

1891524

10345

3829

 

May

2507737

4423

1896510

4986

4392

563

June

2510305

2568

1899701

3191

5015

623

July

2513589

3284

1903643

3942

5673

658

August

2515658

2069

1906465

2822

6426

753

Sep.

2518936

3278

1910969

4504

7652

1226

Another perspective is to look at momentum on a county by county basis.  The chart below shows the net gain by Party for August and September.  (A red number with a minus (-) number means that Democrats fell behind by that number or stated conversely, Republicans gained by that number.) 

Comparing August to September, Republicans gained advantage in 75 counties during the month, no change was recorded in 2 counties and Democrats gained in only 23 counties. A gain can be either a) adding net registrations to an existing advantage or b) reducing the dominant Party’s advantage from the previous month.  For example, Democrats in Vance County had a net advantage of 354 registrations in 2006 as of August and a 394 in September, a net gain of 40 registrations in the past month.  The momentum would be “D” for Democrat.  An example of cutting into an existing Party’s lead is Buncombe County.  Democrats in Buncombe County had a net gain of 282 registrations as of August but that number fell to 228 in September.  Republicans gained a net of 54 registrations in the month; therefore the momentum would be “R” for Republican. 

County

Dem 8/06

Rep 8/06

Net Dem +/- 1/06 to 8/06

Dem 9/06

Rep 9/06

Net Dem +/- 1/06 to 9/06

One Month Momentum

ALAMANCE

36689

29297

-200

36669

29312

-235

R

ALEXANDER

9012

11113

-139

9020

11126

-144

R

ALLEGHANY

3508

2134

-29

3510

2140

-33

R

ANSON

11185

2177

63

11222

2175

102

D

ASHE

7573

8606

-86

7582

8624

-95

R

AVERY

1647

7907

-162

1650

7935

-187

R

BEAUFORT

15760

9199

-24

15777

9202

-10

D

BERTIE

11237

1343

76

11235

1348

69

R

BLADEN

15013

2933

381

15010

2937

374

R

BRUNSWICK

25181

23635

-372

25298

23835

-455

R

BUNCOMBE

69692

50016

282

69602

49980

228

R

BURKE

22784

20548

-31

22804

20599

-62

R

CABARRUS

33234

40493

-412

33288

40617

-482

R

CALDWELL

17260

23159

-208

17289

23220

-240

R

CAMDEN

3078

1610

-127

3077

1622

-140

R

CARTERET

15345

18415

-415

15355

18453

-443

R

CASWELL

9456

3014

-23

9463

3011

-13

D

CATAWBA

30185

45594

-640

30255

45693

-669

R

CHATHAM

18978

10132

624

19005

10152

631

D

CHEROKEE

7789

8519

-103

7805

8535

-103

 

CHOWAN

5649

2122

205

5646

2121

203

R

CLAY

2758

3138

144

2777

3163

138

R

CLEVELAND

30094

18540

-9

30141

18606

-28

R

COLUMBUS

25096

5751

20

25092

5763

4

R

CRAVEN

27007

22191

-276

27000

22266

-358

R

CUMBERLAND

88426

49778

59

88528

49931

8

R

CURRITUCK

5553

4739

-166

5554

4765