Them Dems

WAR POLLS

Pollsters are about testing whether Bush’s national address successfully rallied support for escalating the civil war in Iraq. USA Today/Gallup published its results yesterday and their poll strongly supports the CNN poll, appearing in this TPJ section below, finding that Bush’s speech failed to generate support. TPJ readers should review the poll results in their entirety that can be found at this hyperlink: USA Today/Gallup.

In our estimation, a simple comparison of the CNN results with the USA Today/Gallup results on several critical questions demonstrates Bush’s failure. The chart immediately below lists some of CNN questions and we have matched generally similar poll question results from USA Today/Gallup. One caveat; the USA Today/Gallup questions, while generally similar, were framed differently than CNN. Variations in the questions can produce different results even though attempting to measure the same issue or question.

The USA Today/Gallup responses are highlighted in blue.

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Jan. 11, 2007. N=1,093 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults).
						.
"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?"
						.
			Approve	Disapprove	Unsure
			%	%	%
		1/11/2007	29	69	2
USA Today		2007 Jan 12-14	28	70	2

						.
"Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war in Iraq?"
						.
			Favor	Oppose	Unsure
			%	%	%
	1/11/2007		31	67	2
USA Today	2007 Jan 12-14		41	58	2
						.
"Regardless of how you feel about the war in general, do you favor or oppose President Bush's plan to send about 20,000 more U.S. troops to Iraq in an attempt to stabilize the situation there?" If "Favor" or "Oppose": "Do you favor/oppose strongly or only moderately?"
						.
			Strongly or Moderately	Strongly or Moderately	Unsure
			Favor	Oppose	Unsure
			%	%	%
	1/11/2007		32	66	3
USA Today	2007 Jan 12-14		38	59	3

"Congress may consider several different resolutions on President Bush's plan to send more troops to Iraq. Some resolutions would take steps to prevent this, while other resolutions would express opposition to the plan, but not attempt to block it. Suppose Congress considers a resolution which would take specific steps designed to prevent the U.S. from sending more troops to Iraq. What would you want your members of Congress to do? Should they vote to allow the U.S. to send more troops to Iraq or vote to prevent the U.S. from sending more troops to Iraq?"
						.
			Allow	Prevent	Unsure
			%	%	%
	1/11/2007		36	61	3
USA Today	2007 Jan 12-14		50	47	3
						.
"Suppose Congress considers a resolution which would express opposition to sending more troops to Iraq but would not take specific steps to prevent that from happening. What would you want your members of Congress to do? Should they vote to express support for sending more troops to Iraq or vote to express opposition to sending more troops to Iraq?"
						.
			Support	Opposition	Unsure
			%	%	%
	1/11/2007		34	62	4
USA Today	2007 Jan 12-14		37	61	2

Both polls were remarkably similar in results, except on the issue of Democrats in Congress preventing Bush from sending more troops even though the public is opposed to escalating the civil war in Iraq.

The early polls all suggest that Bush failed to make the initial case for escalating the civil war. Perhaps the degree of public dissatisfaction is not revealed by the fact that CNN found only 43% of the people surveyed watched Bush’s address and USA Today/Gallup pegs the number who watched at only 39%. Public attitudes toward the war have hardened, Bush has lost credibility with the public and it appears they are no longer willing to listen.

The initial polling suggests that Bush’s speech justifying escalation of the civil war in Iraq was not well received. A “snap poll” by ABC/Washington post, taken immediately after the poll found (emphasis added):

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll with a much larger sampling size found that of those who actually watched the speech, less than half of those surveyed, only 27% indicated that the speech made it “more likely” that they would support Bush’s policies. This rate is roughly equivalent to the percentage of Americans who currently support Bush’s war in Iraq.

"Did you happen to watch or listen to any of Bush's speech on Iraq last night, or not?"
					.
		Yes	No
		%	%
	1/11/07	43	57
					.
	Asked of those who watched or listened to speech: "Did the speech make you more likely or less likely to support Bush's policies in Iraq, or didn't it make any difference to you?"
					.
		More Likely	Less Likely	No Difference	Unsure
		%	%	%	%
	1/11/07	27	27	45	1

These two polls suggest that Bush’s speech probably will not shift pubic opinion. With the overwhelming majority of Americans opposed to Bush’s policies, the onus is on Bush and the Republicans to shift public attitudes. With both 27% answering that Bush’s speech made is “more likely” and “less likely” to support Bush’s policies; Bush’s speech may have simply polarized existing attitudes.

The caveat is that 57% of Americans apparently did not watch Bush’s performance. Their attitudes will be shaped in the days to come through personal conversations, the press and the internet. Who wins their opinions through the “reverberation campaign” is critical. Another two weeks of polling are needed to determine trends; but it appears that attitudes of Americans are set.

In the battle for public opinion, the Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress are invaluable. The day following Bush’s speech, SoS Rice was being grilled over Bush’s escalation of the civil war. With radical Republicans no longer in leadership of Congress, Americans witnessed a bipartisan attack on Bush’s policy. It is another testament of the need to maintain and expand Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress.

Two new polls have been published since our last report; AP-Ipsos (“AP”) and CNN/Research Corp. (CNN). All polls released in January reflect Bush’s approval rating has declined since December; a -1% decline from in all polls except CNN, a -2% decline.

Bush is now at his lowest monthly average recorded during his presidency; 33.50%, and those who disapprove of Bush’s conduct is at its highest level; 62.25%. The spread between approval and disapproval is at its highest level; 28.75%.

IF these levels continue through January, Bush could record his worst month as President. One caveat, it is too early to assess public reaction to Bush’s escalation of the civil war in Iraq. At least five post announcement polls will be needed to gage public impact.

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH

		Approve	Trail Mo	Disapprove	No Opinion	Spread

CNN/Opinion Research Corp.	1/11/2007	35		62	3	-27
AP-Ipsos	1/8-10/07	32		65	8	-33
USA Today/Gallup	1/5-7/07	37		59	4	-22
CBS	1/1-3/07	30		63	7	-33

	January Avg	33.50	-2.00	62.25	5.50	-28.75

	2006
	December Avg	35.50	-0.93	59.25	5.42	-23.75