|
archived:
29 Jun - 5 Jul, 2008
Back
Next UPDATED: JUL 2, 2008 RIGHT, BUT WRONG? Political pundits are busy pontificating whether Sen. Obama can win a southern state. Thomas F. Schaller, professor of political science at the University of Maryland and author of “Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South,” says no. Schaller applies conventional political wisdom to his analysis. The main points: 1. The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.
2.
The second myth is that Democratic presidential
candidates fare better in Southern states that have large numbers of
African-Americans. In fact, the reverse is true, because the more blacks
there are in a Southern state, the more likely the white voters are to vote
Republican. 3. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Mr. Obama could increase black turnout in Mississippi to 39 percent of the statewide electorate, up from 34 percent in 2004, according to exit polls. And let’s assume that Mr. Obama will win 95 percent of those voters, up from the 90 percent who voted for Mr. Kerry four years ago. If that happened, the black vote would yield Mr. Obama 37 percent of Mississippi’s statewide votes. To get the last 13 percent he needs for a majority, Mr. Obama would need to persuade a mere 21 percent of white voters in Mississippi to support him. Sounds easy, right? But only 14 percent of white voters in the state supported Mr. Kerry. Mr. Obama would need to increase that number by 7 percentage points — a 50 percent increase. Mr. Obama struggled to attract white Democrats in states like Ohio and South Dakota. It strains credulity to believe that he will attract three white voters in Mississippi for every two that Mr. Kerry did. The analysis is sound, but incomplete from several perspectives. We use North Carolina for the example. We expect November turnout to approach 4 million voters. Therefore, every 40,000 votes represent 1%. There are over 600,000 Democrats who have not voted since 2000. If Democrats can energize 200,000 of these “sleeping” Democrats, NC would most likely gain about 3%. To date, Democrats have registered 120,000 net new voters in the State compared to 13,000 for Republicans and some 70,000 Unaffiliated voters. The net effect is probably a 2% rise in Democratic performance. Many of the younger voters; Democratic and Unaffiliated are younger voters. If national trends hold true in North Carolina, they will split roughly 60% to 40% for Sen. Obama. Schaller’s single focus on Black voters simply misses the point. In NC there are hundreds of thousands of White younger voters who will vote for Sen. Obama. Public Policy Polling’s newest poll maintains that Sen. Obama continues to trail Sen. McCain by 4%. That represents a goal of Democrats finding another 160,000 additional voters. Those voters are there. The mission for Democrats is to find them and motivate them to the polls. If that happens, NC Democrats will rewrite conventional political wisdom. SHIFTS Public Policy Polling (PPP) is regularly surveying North Carolina. As noted in the article above, their most recent poll has Sen. Obama -4% in North Carolina. A closer examination of the polling data shows some signs of shifts, both favorable and potentially lethal to the Obama campaign. The chart below is a composite of the crosstabs for Party affiliation for May and the most recent PPP poll in June. The critical points boxes are highlighted. Our observations:
If PPP’s polling is accurate, whether Sen. Obama can win North Carolina largely rests in the hands of Democrats. Based on the early trends (and these trends are very early in the election cycle) the outcome of the election in NC depends on whether the divisions created in the Primary can be healed. TESTING The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is testing political waters in two NC Congressional Districts: Radio ads have started in the 8th where Keith Schuler is looking to defeat Rep. Robin Hayes and the 10th where Democrat Daniel Johnson challenges Rep. Patrick McHenry. It should come as no surprise that the DCCC is leading with gasoline prices. The ad is imaginative and makes ties Reps. Hayes and McHenry to Bush and the big oil conglomerates. You can listen to the ad here: The points made in the ad are points that Democrats should be making to their friends and associates across North Carolina. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: JUN 29, 2008SMALL BUMP, BIG GAINS How important is registering new voters and turning out more Democrats in November? The Chicago Tribune (emphasis added) authors a study suggesting that a rise of just 10% could be the difference between winning and losing – including North Carolina.
Barack Obama could make major
gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he
can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and
African-American voters, a Tribune analysis of voting data suggests. Turnout increases of 10 percent of both young voters and African-Americans could virtually eliminate the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Ohio and go a long way to closing the gap in Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and—a bit more of a stretch—possibly North Carolina. The message for North Carolina Democrats is simple – register new voters and start the process of canvassing to get Democrats to the polls in November. Small “bumps” could reap big gains. Every day is a new opportunity to Turn NC Blue. JOBS If younger voters need a reason to register and vote Democratic this November, there is one clear reason – jobs. As stagflation continues to take its toll, NC unemployment is rising: North Carolina's unemployment rate rose to 5.8 percent in May, its highest level since February 2004. The state's rate jumped from 5.4 percent in April, according to the N.C. Employment Security Commission. National unemployment saw a larger hike, rising to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent in April. Adjusted for seasonal effects, the number of North Carolinians with jobs declined by 18,330 in May from April. That occurred as the labor force -- the number of residents with jobs or who are actively looking for work -- increased by 2,587. "With the seasonal increase in students entering the job market, North Carolina's labor force has grown for the third consecutive month," says Harry Payne Jr., ESC chairman. "While we typically see an increase this time of year, the job market is tighter now than it has been in the recent past. Job seekers, whether they are students and recent graduates or workers needing additional money, are having a tougher time finding jobs than in the past couple of years." 92 of NC’s 100 counties reported a rise in unemployment. In a tight job market, younger citizens will find it difficult to find any place on the economic ladder. If they want economic security – they need to vote Democratic. DIFFERENCES For those who do not believe that one’s Party does not make a difference, this contrast between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and Pat McCrory could not be more telling. NC Democrats support providing two years free at a NC Community College. McCrory? He would only finance scholarships targeted to specific employers. Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican candidate for governor, on Thursday criticized his opponent's plan to offer free community college tuition for N.C. high school graduates. McCrory jabbed at Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, the Democratic candidate, as he toured a Charlotte voice and data processing center at PAETEC, a supplier of commercial phone and data services. Perdue has pledged to offer two years of free tuition to build a more-educated work force as many old-economy, factory-style jobs are being lost to foreign operations, she said. The mayor said he would support offering targeted scholarships to help fill labor gaps in areas where the state is lacking, such as in mental health. But he doesn't support a broader plan because it would end up costing taxpayers too much, he said. “It's not free; someone's going to get the bill,” he told the group of employees. Which plan will provide the most opportunities for younger citizens to become long term productive citizens? The answer should be obvious – Lt. Gov. Perdue’s.
Last Update: 07/05/2008 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
