UPDATED: JUL 2, 2008
ONE REASON
If Democrats need one reason to unite to win in November, they need look no further than the US Supreme Court. Republican appointees have four solid votes. Justice Kennedy, a Republican conservative, is now voting occasionally with moderates on the Court. Justice Stevens is 88 years old; it is doubtful he will serve through the next Presidential term.
The simple proposition is that Republicans are one vote away from a Court that can not only roll back constitutional law as expressed in Roe v. Wade, but in the ability to strike down policies of a Democratic administration. E. J. Dionne expresses the consequences in compelling terms:
The spate of 5 to 4 conservative decisions during the Supreme Court term just ended should stand as a warning that we may soon revisit the fights of 70 years ago. Yet almost nobody is talking about this danger. To the extent that judges have been a campaign issue in recent elections, the focus has been on a few hot-button issues, notably abortion. After last week's decision in the sharply contested Second Amendment case, perhaps gun rights will join the list.
But the more important question is whether conservative judges will see fit to do exactly what conservative courts did for much of the New Deal era by using a narrow, 19th-century definition of property rights to void progressive economic, environmental and labor regulation. . . .
A new generation of conservatives wants to bring the old order back under the auspices of what's called the Constitution in Exile movement. Their driving idea is that the thrust of jurisprudence since the late 1930s voided the "real" Constitution.
As legal scholar Jeffrey Rosen noted in the New Republic, this movement favors "reimposing meaningful limits on federal power that could strike at the core of the regulatory state for the first time since the New Deal." He wrote that "justices could change the shape of laws governing the environment, workplace health and safety, anti-discrimination, and civil rights, making it difficult for the federal government to address problems for which the public demands a national response."
It's not hard to imagine the cases that conservatives would bring against laws passed by a Democratic Congress and signed by a President Barack Obama. Why wouldn't a movement that has tried to eviscerate wetlands laws and the Endangered Species Act challenge cap-and-trade legislation aimed at dealing with global warming?
If Congress ever passed a "card-check" law to make it easier for unions to organize, those who never much liked the minimum wage or collective bargaining would certainly try to overturn the new labor right in court.
And what would be the legal fate of new regulations on banking called forth by the economic devastation of the subprime mess, or bank bailouts that may be necessary to keep capitalism on track, or mandatory mortgage renegotiations to keep people from being thrown out of their homes?
The four conservatives on the Supreme Court, when empowered by the swing vote of Justice Anthony Kennedy, have already shown their willingness to overturn the will of Congress and local legislatures when doing so fits their political philosophy. The same majority could keep conservative ideas in the saddle long after the electorate has decided that they don't work anymore.
If Democrats cannot unite to elect the next President to appoint perhaps two Supreme Court replacements, the nation may suffer for generations to come.
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UPDATED: JUN 29, 2008MCFLIP
A studious political observer penned the “The Top 5 John McCain Flip-Flops” at Politicusa and they are fabulous examples of McCain’s “straight talk:”
1). Immigration:
John McCain used to support amnesty for illegal immigrants. May 29, 2003 interview: "Amnesty has to be an important part because there are people who have lived in this country for 20, 30 or 40 years, who have raised children here and pay taxes here and are not citizens." Dec. 15, 2000 press release: "I support the Latino and Immigrant Fairness Act (LIFA). Negotiations between the White House and the leadership, which endorsed more limited immigration reform, have resulted in a compromise.... this bill makes meaningful but insufficient progress on amnesty for those wrongly denied it. [Source: Factcheck.org]
McCain 2008:
“Look, I have said time after time that no one can be reward for illegal behavior. The context of that conversation, don't you call that "amnesty." I have said in hundreds of hours of debate on the Senate floor, we reward no one for illegal behavior They have to pay fines. They have to take the naturalization. About two million people here in this country who have come illegally, have committed crimes here in America, and they have to be deported immediately.” [Source: Meet the Press Candidates 2008 series]
2). Abortion:
In 1999, McCain didn’t support repealing Roe v. Wade. “I’d love to see a point where it is irrelevant, and could be repealed because abortion is no longer necessary. But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations.” [Source: San Francisco Chronicle]
McCain 2008:
“I am pro-life and an advocate for the Rights of Man everywhere in the world, because to be denied liberty is an offense to nature and nature's Creator. I will never waver in that conviction. Our liberty will not be seized in a political revolution or by a totalitarian government. But, rather, as Burke warned, it can be "nibbled away, for expedience, and by parts." I am alert to that risk and will defend against it, and I will be encouraged in that defense by my fellow conservatives.” [Source: Conservative Political Action Conference Feb 7, 2008]
3). Offshore Drilling:
McCain used to be a staunch opponent of offshore drilling. Here is what a questionnaire from the Sustainable Energy Coalition said about his position on offshore drilling, “Senator John McCain, who criticized the Clinton Administration for its decision to extend 36 offshore oil leaves along the central California coast over the objections of that state's Governor and Attorney General, has promised to never lose sight of the fundamental principle that federal land management decisions affecting local communities must be made in cooperation with the Americans who call those communities home."
McCain 2008:
"We have proven oil reserves of at least 21 billion barrels in the United States. But a broad federal moratorium stands in the way of energy exploration and production. And I believe it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use.” [Speech Houston, TX June 17,2008]
4). The Bush Tax Cuts: McCain was one of only two Senate
Republicans to vote against the Bush tax cuts in 2001. “I am disappointed that the Senate Finance Committee preferred instead to cut the top tax rate of 39.6% to 36%, thereby granting generous tax relief to the wealthiest individuals of our country at the expense of lower- and middle-income American taxpayers.” [McCain Senate floor statement, May 21, 2001]
McCain 2008:
“I will not let the Democrats roll back the Bush tax cuts. I believe we should protect the American family against partisan tax increases by requiring a three-fifths majority in Congress to raise taxes. But that is just a start.” [Detroit Economic Club, October 9, 2007]
5). The Economy: This is a record even for McCain. He managed to change his position on whether or not Americans were better off now than they were 8 years ago overnight. In an April 17 interview with Bloomberg TV, McCain said, “I think if you look at the overall record and millions of jobs have been created, et cetera, et cetera, you could make an argument that there’s been great progress economically over that period of time. But that’s no comfort. That’s no comfort to families now that are facing these tremendous economic challenges.”
The next day in an interview with Al Hunt on the very same network McCain said, “I respect the views of people who basically think that the status quo is satisfactory today. I don’t. I think Americans are hurting, and hurting badly. In fact, I think Americans are not better off than they were eight years ago, when you look at what’s happened to middle-income Americans.” [Source: Thinkprogress.org]
Sen. McCain’s “flips” and “flops” makes it extraordinarily difficult for Americans to know what they will get with a McCain presidency. It is a point that Democrats should be making with all voters.
YOUTH VOTE
Democracy Corps has completed a three part series on the Youth Vote. Younger voters are trending decidedly Democratic. Democracy Corps summarizes:
Critically, the Democratic advantage balloons among young people most likely to vote. Among core voters—young people with some vote history—and among young people who describe their likelihood of voting as a ten on a ten-point scale, Obama’s vote share reaches 66 percent.
These outcomes reflect three distinct but complementary trends. Since our last look at the youth vote two months ago, Obama consolidated the Democratic base and improved among groups that, in the broader electorate, sometimes proved elusive in the primary, groups like white women, Hispanics and even blue collar voters. At the same time, we see a near-disintegration of the Republican brand among youth. Since our first report in 2007, this series has chronicled the profound alienation of America’s youth from the Grand Old Party in both quantitative studies and focus groups. This study shows the problem growing dramatically worse. That has now been accompanied by a crash of the “McCain brand” among young voters, turning sharply negative over the last two months.
Engaging younger voters, getting them registered and to the polls calls for some adaptations in how Democrats engage these voters and motivate them to vote. We believe every Democrat should read the three part analysis and the links are provided below:
The Rising Wave Among Young People
Last Update: 07/05/2008