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UPDATED: JUL 9, 2008 HEADLINES The Charlotte Observer depressing headline reads: Analysis: Obama's chances in N.C. slim The essential premise of the article: Start with a best-case scenario in which Obama could win: Blacks in North Carolina account for 20.7 percent of registered voters as of last month. Most are Democrats. . . . Presume Obama is able to elevate black turnout beyond blacks' current share of registered voters to 25 percent of voters on Election Day, and that he secures 95 percent of those black votes. That essentially requires him to win all black Democrats and all black Independents. Using that math, he starts out with 23.8 percent of the overall vote on Election Day. Now look at the white vote. Veteran Democratic strategist Gary Pearce said he sets a benchmark that a Democratic candidate has to get 41 percent of the white vote, combined with black votes, to win. He's run campaigns for former Gov. Jim Hunt and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' nominee in 2004, could have won with a bit lower percentage of North Carolina's white vote but got 27 percent, according to exit polls. He lost the state, 56 percent to 44 percent. A survey this week by Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling showed Obama with 32 percent of the white vote. In the Democratic primary in May, he received 36 percent of white votes. “If he can't get 40 percent of the white vote when it's all Democrats, it's hard to see how he does it when a majority of the white vote is Republican,” said Tom Jensen, of Public Policy Polling. Republicans outnumbered Democrats among white registered voters in December by 1.8 million to 1.5 million. Obama supporters say he will drive an unprecedented turnout among black voters that even optimistic calculations don't fully consider. North Carolina has some experience with that phenomenon. Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt rallied black voters when he ran against U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms in 1990. Like many southern states, though, there was a corresponding shift among whites, according to both Republican and Democratic strategists. Gantt won urban counties and Helms won in rural areas, as expected. Helms' margins in rural counties, though, were larger than anticipated, said Carter Wrenn, who ran Helms' campaign that year. “There were a lot of white rural voters who were Democrats who had a problem voting for an African-American candidate,” Wrenn said. North Carolina's population has changed dramatically since 1990 with northeasterners, Midwesterners and Hispanics flowing in. “Yes, the state is changing. Yes, he has energized new voters,” said Pearce, the Democratic strategist. “Yes, he will drive African American turnout, but there still just aren't enough votes. “His problem is still among white voters.” We believe a more thorough analysis suggests real possibilities for Sen. Obama in North Carolina. First, in June, Public Policy Polling recorded Obama receiving 30% of white voters. In July, that number had increased modestly to 32%. During the same period, McCain increased his white support from 51% to 53%. Within the one month period both candidates increased their share of white support by 2%. PPP’s July poll pegs undecided white voters at 11%. If Obama and McCain divide the undecided voters equally, with Barr getting 1%, Obama receives 37% of white votes, much closer to the magic 40%. Slim chance? At TPJ, we believe that some 4 million North Carolinians will vote this November 4th. Some 3 million will be white voters. Therefore, 1% of the white vote equates to approximately 30,000 voters. Given the hypothetical division of undecided voters, Obama needs just 90,000 additional white voters in order to win North Carolina. NC Democrats are within striking distance. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: JUL 6, 2008TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD The Durham County Democratic Party is this week’s recipient of TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD. TPJ extends kudos to the Durham County Democratic Party for becoming the second county to cross their voter registration goal for 2008; Forsyth County being the first.
In the race for each county to meet their target of registering a net 200,000+ new voters for the General Election, Durham has surpassed its goal of registering 7,815 new voters. At the end of the week, Durham Democrats registered 8,263 net new Democrats this year, 105.73% of their target. Now, Durham Democrats – double it. Forsyth and Durham Counties will not be the last to exceed their targets. Who will be next to receive TPJ’s TURNING NORTH CAROLINA BLUE AWARD? Check out the article below for some clues. WE’RE BACK Democratic voter registration is up this week! The net gain in Democratic voter registrations was +8,434 compared to 8,489 for Unaffiliated and 2,367 for Republicans. This performance rate is not as strong as prior to the Primary, when Democrats outperformed Unaffiliated and Republicans combined, but it was sufficient to maintain Democratic percentage share of all voters, 45.31%. Republican registration continues to lag badly. While Republicans had one of their best weeks in 2008, their Party has netted just 6.66% of all new registrations year to date. As a result, their percentage of all voter registrations fell again, this week by -.07%. Our conclusion remains the same; Republicans demonstrate little energy in their ground game at this point in the election cycle. Current projections suggest Republican share of all registered voters will fall below 33% by the end of July and approach 32% by the General Election.
TPJ’s stated goal is 200,000 net new registrations in 2008 prior to the November 4th election. In reaching TPJ’s stated goal of 200,000 net new voter registrations before the November 4th election, Democrats have reached 64.70% of that goal statewide. The chart immediately below ranks the counties based upon their percentage of reaching that goal. These special points are noted:
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