archived: 13 - 19 Jul, 2008 Back Next
UPDATED: JUL 16, 2008OBAMA STRATEGY
As a follow up to our coverage of the Electoral College below, Politico published an article detailing the Obama campaign strategy from two top campaign strategists:
Hildebrand and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe have,
in recent days, outlined the shape of the campaign. In an interview with
Politico, Hildebrand said Obama would focus largely on 14 states George
W. Bush won in 2004, plus one state Kerry won in 2004: New Hampshire,
where Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton stage their first joint event
Friday. . . .
Hildebrand also said Obama would campaign in part of Nebraska, which
distributes its electoral votes to the winner of each individual
congressional district.
“We’re going to go in and play Nebraska 2, which is Omaha and
surrounding [areas], in the hopes that we can pick up that one electoral
vote,” he said.
A presentation by Plouffe to donors, and Obama’s own early advertising
expenditures, add three more to that list of states to defend:
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
In an interview, Hildebrand listed states in order of the margin by
which Bush carried them: The closest four — Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio,
Nevada — he said, would see “a ton of attention.”
But he said Obama would campaign hard in 10 more states, with the
candidate and his top surrogates spending time on the ground and his
campaign spending money in the air. Those states are Colorado, Florida,
Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana,
Georgia and Alaska.
Skeptics have questioned Obama’s chances in states ranging from Montana,
where Obama’s support of gun control is unpopular, to those in the
South, where racially polarized voting patterns could undermine his
chances. Some have suggested his broader playing field is a kind of
“head-fake,” a maneuver designed to force McCain to spend money and time
on states Obama doesn’t really think he can win.
Hildebrand dismissed that suggestion.
“We’re going in to win those states,” he said. “We’re not going in to
make McCain have to pay attention to them. We’re going in to win. The
result of that is he’s going to have to pay serious attention to them
where he otherwise might not have to.”
It is an excellent strategy, one that promises multiple potential avenues to win. It is a strategy far advanced from 2000 and 2004 and represents the political thinking that can bring success in November.
AIR OBAMA
The Obama campaign is out with an ad on national security – working an issue that public opinion polls shows McCain leading Obama strongly. In case you missed the ad, you may find it here:
It is a solid ad for Obama that directly separates him from the failed Republican policies of the last seven years.
MCCAIN
The creativity reflected on the Internet is astounding. This “homemade” ad takes on McCain. It is an extraordinary work of political art:
Circulate this ad to your friends and associates.
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UPDATED: JUL 13, 2008KISS
Actor Robert Redford may have provided the most pertinent political analysis of the campaign cycle:
IF BARACK Obama doesn't win November's presidential election in the United States, "you can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye", the actor and director Robert Redford told an audience in Dublin last night.
Speaking at a public interview in Trinity College in advance of his conferral with an honorary degree by the university today, Redford said he hoped Obama would win because while John McCain "represents yesterday", the Democrat embodied the sort of change America needed.
Asked by Michael Dwyer, film correspondent of The Irish Times, if he was looking forward to "regime change" in the US, Redford said: "Yes. Where my country is at the moment, I'm not confident of anything. I'm hopeful.
"I think Obama is not tall on experience . . . but I believe he's a really good person. He's smart. And he does represent what the country needs most now, which is change.
"I hope he'll win. I think he will. If he doesn't, you can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye. I think we need new voices, new blood. We need to get a whole group out, get a new group in."
Predictions of the demise of the Democratic Party over the past decade have been numerous and wrong. Recall that just over three years ago, Karl Rove openly spoke of a permanent Republican majority. Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress in the 2006 election cycle.
Redford’s slightly hyperbolic pronouncement makes a point however. If Democrats cannot win the presidency in the 2008 political climate, a serious overhaul of the Democratic Party will be in order.
STATE OF THINGS
The chart below reflects our current assessment of the Electoral College vote at t his stage of the 2008 election cycle. At the moment McCain has 119 safe or likely electoral votes while Sen. Obama has 203. The election will be won or lost in the 15 states that lean towards one candidate; 59 EV’s for McCain and 57 EV’s for Obama, and the 51 EV’s in states that we classify as toss ups.
The allocations will change as the campaign progresses. Looking at the electoral landscape indicates an edge for Sen. Obama. Democrats have slight leads in two 2004 Republican states; Iowa and New Mexico, a pickup of 12 EV’s from Democrat performance in 2004. The edge gives Sen. Obama multiple strategies to win the election, whereas McCain is pressed at the moment to retain GOP states. Careful note should be given to the fact that ALL of the Toss Up states were Republican in 2004.
With a base of 203 EV’s and 57 leaning to Obama, three central strategies emerge. They are predicated on holding Safe. Likely and Lean states and
1. Win any combination of 9 EV’s in the Toss Up column to gain a tie in the Electoral College and a win in Congress; or
2. Win 10 EV’s with Virginia or Ohio or any combination that garners ten EV’s to win the election outright.
Obama will obviously be focusing on his Lean and the Toss Up states and working to move one or more Lean McCain states into better play. Looking at his recent travel across America confirms the overall strategy. At TPJ, we believe Sen. Obama will continue with this strategy until after the Democratic National Convention in August then reassess the strategy through September.
This brief discussion should emphasize to all Democrats that the 2008 election is still very much in doubt. In recent days, several tracking polls are showing a narrowing of the race. We anticipate the polls will fluctuate even more during the summer months. Polling this early in the election cycle is a poor indication of election outcomes. By early September, the options for both candidates are likely to narrow and the race to the finish line will begin.
The encouraging news for Democrats is that Sen. Obama has multiple possible strategies to victory, a position Democrats in 2000 and 2004 did not enjoy.
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Electoral College |
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|
Safe |
Likely |
Leans |
Toss |
Leans |
Likely |
Safe |
|
McCain |
McCain |
McCain |
Up |
Obama |
Obama |
Obama |
|
36 |
132 |
59 |
51 |
57 |
49 |
154 |
|
AL (9) |
AK (3) |
FL (27) |
NV (5) |
IA (7) |
DE (3) |
CA (55) |
|
ID (4) |
AR (6) |
MO (11) |
VA (13) |
MI (17) |
MN (10) |
CT (7) |
|
KY (8) |
AZ (10) |
MT (3) |
CO (9) |
NM (5) |
NJ (15) |
DC (3) |
|
OK (7) |
GA (15) |
NC (15) |
OH (20) |
PA (21) |
WI (10) |
HI (4) |
|
UT (5) |
IN (11) |
ND (3) |
NH (4) |
OR (7) |
WA (11) |
IL (21) |
|
WY (3) |
KS (6) |
MD (10) |
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LA (9) |
MA (12) |
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|
MS (6) |
ME (4) |
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NE (5) |
NY (31) |
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|
SC (8) |
RI (4) |
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SD (3) |
VT (3) |
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TN (11) |
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TX (34) |
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WV (5) |
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Last Update: 07/19/2008