Them Dems

archived: 8 - 14 Jun, 2008         Back                 Next

UPDATED:  JUN 11, 2008

                        ELECTORAL ROADMAP 

     The early stages of the General Election suggest the election is, with several early exceptions, a replay of 2004.  The National Committee for an Effective Congress is a highly reliable Democratic based resource.  Their current analysis:  

When counting up the votes, the Electoral College looks as if it will be as close as ever. . . . NCEC projections suggest . . .  that Democrats have a slight advantage. States that are safely Democratic or expected to go Democratic account for 232 electoral votes, leaving them 38 votes shy of the needed 270. The Republicans appear likely to capture 226 electoral votes, leaving them 44 votes shy. The outlook appeared better a few months ago before Michigan became a true battleground. However, Pennsylvania, which is traditionally a Democratic state, is currently listed as a battleground state; should polls continue to show Senator Obama ahead, which they have recently, then the outlook will look significantly better.

   The full analysis is a must read and is accompanied by an excellent chart categorizing the states.  They identify five battleground states; Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia, that could determine the election and ten states; five currently in the Democratic column and five in the Republican column, which could develop into true battleground states. 

    At TPJ, we envision two likely scenarios.  First, 2008 is a replay of 2004, with Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio holding the keys to victory.  The next President would be the candidate who can win two of the three states. Based on NCEC’s current analysis, Sen. Obama must get Pennsylvania and Michigan back in the Democratic column, then win either Ohio or Florida, with the former being the most likely winnable target.   

   Second, if Democrats continue to hold New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado, Sen. Obama could win by winning all of the states that Sen. Kerry won and Ohio is not critical.  Based on NCEC’s current analysis, holding Michigan and Pennsylvania are critical.  

   It is clear that Sen. Obama is exploring the “western option”

The underlying goal of Obama’s trip this week through New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado is to lay claim to a region that Obama views as one of his best opportunities to pick off states in November. 

“We want to send a message now that we are going to go after them, and I expect to win them,” Obama told reporters after laying a wreath at a veterans’ memorial. 

President Bush picked up 19 electoral votes across these three states — the margin by which Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry fell short in the Electoral College in 2004. He edged out Kerry by 5 percentage points in Colorado, 2 points in Nevada and less than 1 point in New Mexico. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters Kerry lost because he ignored places like rural Nevada. 

Four years later, Democrats say they have learned their lesson. Party leaders bumped Nevada to the front of the primary calendar and chose Denver to host the convention. 

“If we win these three states, plus the traditional Democratic base, he is president,” New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said of Obama, in an interview Monday. “If John Kerry had won these three states and lost Ohio as he did, he would’ve been president. To ignore the Mountain West is perilous.”

    Under either scenario, it appears that 2008 will be another close contest.

                        VP WATCH

   Speculation swirls; who will Sen. Obama select as his running mate.   

   In one electoral scenario discussed in the article above, Ohio becomes crucial.  Gov. Strickland naturally has been mentioned as a VP candidate to increase the likely hood that Democrats win Ohio.  That speculation can end.  Gov. Strickland removes himself from contention: 

Ted Strickland, the Democratic governor of that battleground state of Ohio, a longtime supporter of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, signaled his disinclination to be on the Democratic ticket in an interview on National Public Radio today. 

Asked if he was angling to become Senator Barack Obama’s vice-presidential running mate, he told NPR: “Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept, and if elected I will not serve.” 

ABC’s Political Radar caught this all early. NPR has the audio here. But it doesn’t sound like sour grapes, even though Mr. Strickland worked his Ohioan machine toward Senator Clinton’s March 4 victory and raised their hands together amid falling confetti in victory on that primary night. 

The interview continues. When asked to rank Mr. Obama’s difficulty in carrying the Buckeye State in the general election cycle, Mr. Strickland told NPR: “I would say somewhere around 5 in a scale of 1 to 10. I think it’s, I just think it’s a challenge because of the nature of our state.”

 Next!

_____________________________________________

UPDATED:  JUNE 8, 2008

FROM KENNEDY TO OBAMA; LIBERALISM'S LAST FLING
By John Pilger, http://www.johnpilger.com 

   In this season of 1968 nostalgia, one anniversary illuminates today. It is the rise and fall of Robert Kennedy, who would have been elected president of the United States had he not been assassinated in June 1968. Having travelled with Kennedy up to the moment of his shooting at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles on 5 June, I heard The Speech many times. He would "return government to the people" and bestow "dignity and justice" on the oppressed. "As Bernard Shaw once said," he would say, "'Most men look at things as they are and wonder why. I dream of things that never were and ask: Why not?'" That was the signal to run back to the bus. It was fun until a hail of bullets passed over our shoulders. 

   Kennedy's campaign is a model for Barack Obama. Like Obama, he was a senator with no achievements to his name. Like Obama, he raised the expectations of young people and minorities. Like Obama, he promised to end an unpopular war, not because he opposed the war's conquest of other people's land and resources, but because it was "unwinnable". 

   Should Obama beat John McCain to the White House in November, it will be liberalism's last fling. In the United States and Britain, liberalism as a war-making, divisive ideology is once again being used to destroy liberalism as a reality. A great many people understand this, as the hatred of Blair and new Labour attest, but many are disoriented and eager for "leadership" and basic social democracy. In the US, where unrelenting propaganda about American democratic uniqueness disguises a corporate system based on extremes of wealth and privilege, liberalism as expressed through the Democratic Party has played a crucial, compliant role. 

   In 1968, Robert Kennedy sought to rescue the party and his own ambitions from the threat of real change that came from an alliance of the civil rights campaign and the anti-war movement then commanding the streets of the main cities, and which Martin Luther King had drawn together until he was assassinated in April that year. Kennedy had supported the war in Vietnam and continued to support it in private, but this was skillfully suppressed as he competed against the maverick Eugene McCarthy, whose surprise win in the New Hampshire primary on an anti-war ticket had forced President Lyndon Johnson to abandon the idea of another term. Using the memory of his martyred brother, Kennedy assiduously exploited the electoral power of delusion among people hungry for politics that represented them, not the rich. 

   "These people love you," I said to him as we left Calexico, California, where the immigrant population lived in abject poverty and people came like a great wave and swept him out of his car, his hands fastened to their lips. 

   "Yes, yes, sure they love me," he replied. "I love them!" I asked him how exactly he would lift them out of poverty: just what was his political philosophy? 

   "Philosophy? Well, it's based on a faith in this country and I believe that many Americans have lost this faith and I want to give it back to them, because we are the last and the best hope of the world, as Thomas Jefferson said." 

   "That's what you say in your speech. Surely the question is: How?" 

   "How? . . . by charting a new direction for America." 

   The vacuities are familiar. Obama is his echo. Like Kennedy, Obama may well "chart a new direction for America" in specious, media-honed language, but in reality he will secure, like every president, the best damned democracy money can buy. 

   As their contest for the White House draws closer, watch how, regardless of the inevitable personal smears, Obama and McCain draw nearer to each other. They already concur on America's divine right to control all before it. "We lead the world in battling immediate evils and promoting the ultimate good," said Obama. "We must lead by building a 21st-century military . . . to advance the security of all people [emphasis added]." McCain agrees. Obama says in pursuing "terrorists" he would attack Pakistan. McCain wouldn't quarrel. Both candidates have paid ritual obeisance to the regime in Tel Aviv, unquestioning support for which defines all presidential ambition. In opposing a UN Security Council resolution implying criticism of Israel's starvation of the people of Gaza, Obama was ahead of both McCain and Hillary Clinton. In January, pressured by the Israel lobby, he massaged a statement that "nobody has suffered more than the Palestinian people" to now read: "Nobody has suffered more than the Palestinian people from the failure of the Palestinian leadership to recognise Israel [emphasis added]." Such is his concern for the victims of the longest, illegal military occupation of modern times. Like all the candidates, Obama has furthered Israeli/Bush fictions about Iran, whose regime, he says absurdly, "is a threat to all of us". 

   On the war in Iraq, Obama the dove and McCain the hawk are almost united. McCain now says he wants US troops to leave in five years (instead of "100 years", his earlier option). Obama has now "reserved the right" to change his pledge to get troops out next year. "I will listen to our commanders on the ground," he now says, echoing Bush. His adviser on Iraq, Colin Kahl, says the US should maintain up to 80,000 troops in Iraq until 2010. Like McCain, Obama has voted repeatedly in the Senate to support Bush's demands for funding of the occupation of Iraq; and he has called for more troops to be sent to Afghanistan. His senior advisers embrace McCain's proposal for an aggressive "league of democracies", led by the United States, to circumvent the United Nations. 

   Like McCain, he would extend the crippling embargo on Cuba. 

   Amusingly, both have denounced their "preachers" for speaking out. Whereas McCain's man of God praised Hitler, in the fashion of lunatic white holy-rollers, Obama's man, Jeremiah Wright, spoke an embarrassing truth. He said that the attacks of 11 September 2001 had taken place as a consequence of the violence of US power across the world. The media demanded that Obama disown Wright and swear an oath of loyalty to the Bush lie that "terrorists attacked America because they hate our freedoms". So he did. The conflict in the Middle East, said Obama, was rooted not "primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel", but in "the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam". Journalists applauded. Islamophobia is a liberal speciality. 

   The American media love both Obama and McCain. Reminiscent of mating calls by Guardian writers to Blair more than a decade ago, Jann Wenner, founder of the liberal Rolling Stone, wrote: "There is a sense of dignity, even majesty, about him, and underneath that ease lies a resolute discipline . . . Like Abraham Lincoln, Barack Obama challenges America to rise up, to do what so many of us long to do: to summon 'the better angels of our nature'." At the liberal New Republic, Charles Lane confessed: "I know it shouldn't be happening, but it is. I'm falling for John McCain." His colleague Michael Lewis had gone further. His feelings for McCain, he wrote, were like "the war that must occur inside a 14-year-old boy who discovers he is more sexually attracted to boys than to girls". 

    The objects of these uncontrollable passions are as one in their support for America's true deity, its corporate oligarchs. Despite claiming that his campaign wealth comes from small individual donors, Obama is backed by the biggest Wall Street firms: Goldman Sachs, UBS AG, Lehman Brothers, J P Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, as well as the huge hedge fund Citadel Investment Group. "Seven of the Obama campaign's top 14 donors," wrote the investigator Pam Martens, "consisted of officers and employees of the same Wall Street firms charged time and again with looting the public and newly implicated in originating and/or bundling fraudulently made mortgages." A report by United for a Fair Economy, a non-profit group, estimates the total loss to poor Americans of colour who took out sub-prime loans as being between $164bn and $213bn: the greatest loss of wealth ever recorded for people of colour in the United States. "Washington lobbyists haven't funded my campaign," said Obama in January, "they won't run my White House and they will not drown out the voices of working Americans when I am president." According to files held by the Centre for Responsive Politics, the top five contributors to the Obama campaign are registered corporate lobbyists. 

   What is Obama's attraction to big business? Precisely the same as Robert Kennedy's. By offering a "new", young and apparently progressive face of the Democratic Party - with the bonus of being a member of the black elite - he can blunt and divert real opposition. That was Colin Powell's role as Bush's secretary of state. An Obama victory will bring intense pressure on the US anti-war and social justice movements to accept a Democratic administration for all its faults. If that happens, domestic resistance to rapacious America will fall silent. 

   America's war on Iran has already begun. In December, Bush secretly authorised support for two guerrilla armies inside Iran, one of which, the military arm of Mujahedin-e Khalq, is described by the state department as terrorist. The US is also engaged in attacks or subversion against Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Bolivia and Venezuela. A new military command, Africom, is being set up to fight proxy wars for control of Africa's oil and other riches. With US missiles soon to be stationed provocatively on Russia's borders, the Cold War is back. None of these piracies and dangers has raised a whisper in the presidential campaign, not least from its great liberal hope. 

   Moreover, none of the candidates represents so-called mainstream America. In poll after poll, voters make clear that they want the normal decencies of jobs, proper housing and health care. They want their troops out of Iraq and the Israelis to live in peace with their Palestinian neighbours. This is a remarkable testimony, given the daily brainwashing of ordinary Americans in almost everything they watch and read. 

   On this side of the Atlantic, a deeply cynical electorate watches British liberalism's equivalent last fling. Most of the "philosophy" of new Labour was borrowed wholesale from the US. Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were interchangeable. Both were hostile to traditionalists in their parties who might question the corporate-speak of their class-based economic policies and their relish for colonial conquests. Now the British find themselves spectators to the rise of new Tory, distinguishable from Blair's new Labour only in the personality of its leader, a former corporate public relations man who presents himself as Tonier than thou. We all deserve better. 

_____  

Junkie:  This thought provoking article is reprinted in its entirely.  For a more direct discussion of the Democratic Party call for unity, read Cathy Moore’s article in today’s JUNKIES SPEAK.  

                        TEETERING 

   One senses that Bush’s public approval/disapproval ratings are teetering on the edge of the abyss.  In April, Bush’s average approval rating dipped below 30% for the first time to rebound in to just above 30% in May.  June opens with Bush’s average approval rating falling below 30% again to a new low. At the same time, the millions of Americans who disapprove of Bush’s performance in office crosses above 66% for the first time.  The downward poll trends are the result of Republicans abandoning support of their President. 

   Why does this matter?  McCain is now forced to distance himself from a President whose record jeopardizes his election.  Two examples: 

  1.  Immediately after securing the Republican nomination, Sen. McCain called upon Bush at the White House and announced, “I intend to have as much possible campaigning events together, as it is in keeping with the President's heavy schedule...I hope that he will campaign for me as much as is keeping with his busy schedule...I'm pleased to have him as is -- as it fits into his busy schedule.”


McCain is now finding “scheduling conflicts” to avoid appearing with Bush at Republican campaign events.   For example, “Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will not attend President Bush’s fundraising dinner for congressional candidates in another indication that the GOP nominee is distancing himself from the man he wants to replace. McCain’s campaign did not comment but the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) confirmed that the Arizona senator will not attend the annual event, which will take place on June 18. A source familiar with McCain’s schedule said he is expected to be in Texas on June 18. ‘Maybe he found a better dinner?’ Republican Study Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chair of the event for the NRCC said. ‘When he’s the president, he can attend lots of president’s dinners.’”

 

  1. More directly, McCain is publicly making the case that he is not Bush. “’You will hear from my opponent's campaign in every speech, every interview, every press release that I'm running for President Bush's third term,’ McCain said. ‘You will hear every policy of the president described as the Bush-McCain policy. Why does Senator Obama believe it's so important to repeat that idea over and over again? Because he knows it's very difficult to get Americans to believe something they know is false.’ In other words, America, I'm not Bush. 

   Based on the dire economic news this week, we anticipate that Bush’s approval ratings will continue to drop and the harder Sen. McCain will struggle to disengage the President who he supported.                         

TPJ'S BUSH WATCH

 

 

Approve

Trail Mo

Disapprove

No Opinion

Spread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN/Opinion Research

6/4-5/08

32

 

65

2

-33

CBS

5/30 - 6/3/08

25

 

67

8

-42

USA Today/Gallup

5/30 - 6/1/08

28

 

68

4

-40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

June Avg

28.33

-1.83

66.67

4.67

-38.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May Avg

30.17

1.53

65.17

4.83

-35.00

 

April Avg

28.64

-2.26

65.82

5.55

-37.18

 

March Avg

30.90

-1.66

63.60

5.30

-32.70

 

February Avg

32.56

0.22

62.56

4.67

-30.00

 

January Avg

32.33

-1.12

63.13

4.47

-30.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

33.45

0.85

61.82

4.45

-28.36

 

November Avg

32.60

-0.50

61.81

5.59

-29.21

 

October Avg

33.10

-0.07

60.90

5.90

-27.80

 

September Avg

33.17

1.17

61.75

5.17

-28.58

 

August Avg

32.00

1.58

61.67

6.33

-29.33

 

July Avg

30.42

-0.43

63.50

6.08

-33.08

 

June Avg

30.85

-2.38

63.23

6.00

-32.38

 

May Avg

33.22

-1.70

61.33

5.56

-28.11

 

April Avg

34.92

1.49

59.92

5.15

-25.00

 

March Avg

33.43

-0.24

60.43

6.14

-27.00

 

February Avg

33.67

-0.22

60.17

6.08

-26.50

 

January Avg

33.89

-1.61

61.61

4.83

-27.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

December Avg

35.50

-0.93

59.25

5.42