UPDATED:  MAY 13, 2008

                        BASE LINE 

   With the NC primaries completed pollsters are posting the first round of polls.  They should give every Democrat an appreciation of the challenges to winning in 2008 and the opportunities to win. Today, we focus on the contest for President.  

    Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Sen. McCain leading Sen. Obama in North Carolina; 49% to 42%, a spread of +7%. The macro breakdown: 

Two sets of numbers reveal critical points.  First, Party crossover is unfavorable to Sen. Obama; losing 25% of Democrats and winning only 11% of Republicans.  In 2004, Sen. Kerry lost 16% of Democrats and garnered only 4% of Republicans.  Comparing the spreads:  2008, +14 spread for Republicans compared with +12% spread in 2004.  Based upon the spirited campaign conducted in North Carolina this number is not initially surprising.  Sen. McCain is losing more Republican support to Sen. Obama that Bush lost in 2004; 4% voting for Sen. Kerry and 11% indicating they will vote for Sen. Obama. 

   Second, PPP has Independent voters breaking to McCain by +15%, with 19% undecided.  In 2004, Independents voted 55% Bush and 44% Sen. Kerry, a split of +12% towards Republicans. 

   At this stage of the election cycle in North Carolina, Sen. Obama is performing slightly behind Sen. Kerry’s performance in 2004 in a number of aspects.  From a macro basis, the reason is apparent, the loss of support among White voters.  PPP finds Sen. Obama capturing 10% less White voters than Sen. Clinton and McCain garnering 7% of that loss, with 3% indicating they are undecided.   

In 2004, 71% of all NC voters were White; Bush won 73% and Sen. Kerry won 27%. PPP’s poll generally mirrors those results – obviously not winning results for Democrats at this point. 

   PPP’s internals suggest where the loss among Whites is most prevalent.  First, what is the age of these Whites?  Comparing the results for Sens. Clinton and Obama provides the answer. Sen. Obama performs better among all age groups compared to Sen. Clinton except 65 and older.  Obama under performs Clinton in that category by -5% while Sen. McCain increases his support from +6% over Clinton to +22% in this age group.  

In 2004, 13% of all voters were over age 65 and Bush won this age group 55% to 44%. Democrats obviously have much work to do in this age group.  

            Where are these white Democrats?  Again, PPP polling internals suggests some answers. 

Comparing the spreads (Clinton – McCain) minus (Obama – McCain) demonstrates where Obama is over/under performing Clinton and, therefore, some indication where Obama is underperforming among White, older voters.

Essentially, the White voters among which Sen. Obama is underperforming are west along a line running with I-85 and in southeastern North Carolina. 

   We raise three caveats with PPP’s early poll:  

1.   We believe that the PPP poll lacks accuracy to some degree because they apparently did not poll two candidates; Ralph Nader and former Sen. Bob Barr.  Both may be on the ballot in November.

2.   PPP’s would have us believe that Sen. Obama’s support among Black voters is slightly less than Sen. Kerry’s 2004 performance; a fact we find difficult to accept.  PPP pegs the current division; Obama 80%, McCain 13% and 7% undecided.  In 2004, Sen. Kerry won 85% of African American votes and Bush 14%.

3.   By age, PPP has 18 to 29 year old voters supporting Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama by +2.  Sen. Kerry carried this age group in 2004; 56% to 43%.  The current result simply defies logic.

   PPP’s initial poll demonstrates that Sen. Obama could win North Carolina.  McCain did not poll above 50%, which has to be of concern to Republicans in a State that Bush carried against both Gore (56% to 43%) and Kerry (56% to 44%). 

   The immediate tasks for Democrats should be obvious; 1) work to reduce defections and 2) start working the 19% of Independents who are undecided to ultimately narrow the spread. One critical component to victory may not be as obvious; registering new Democrats.  If Democrats in the existing pool of voters are providing McCain with 1 of every 4 votes; Democrats have to bring massive numbers of new Democrats into the pool who will vote for Sen. Obama. 

Therefore, these are the three keys to victory:

1.       Register new Democrats with an emphasis on ingle females.

2.       Reducing Party defections to no more than 12%, with an emphasis on Senor Democrats.

3.       Working undecided Independent voters to achieve parity with the Republicans or at least an unfavorable split of not more than 52% to 48%.

Can Sen. Obama win NC?  Yes!  Democrats simply have to put in the effort to make it happen.  

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                        TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD 

  The Forsyth County Democratic Party is this week’s recipient of TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD.   

  In the race for each county to meet their target of registering a net of 200,000+ new voters for the General Election, Forsyth has surpassed its goal of registering 6,779 new voters.  At the end of the week, Forsyth Democrats registered 6,863 net new Democrats, 101.24% of the target.  

  TPJ extends kudos to the Forsyth County Democratic Party.  Forsyth is the first to cross the voter registration line; it will not be the last. 

  Now, Forsyth Democrats – double it.  

  Who will be next County receiving TPJ’s TURNING NORTH CAROLINA BLUE AWARD?                         

                        PROGRESSING                       

  One component in making Democrats competitive in the North Carolina General Election is registering 200,000 net new registered voters.  Democrats registered 7,306 net new voters during the past week, making solid progress towards that goal.

  The numbers for this week: