CANARIES  

   Republicans are still reacting to and analyzing the special Congressional election loss in the 1^st Mississippi Congressional District.  Republican Rep. Tom Davis authored a memorandum to his Congressional colleagues summarizing his informed conclusions.  His analysis is important for Democrats from two perspectives.  First, Rep. Davis discusses Republican weaknesses; areas that Democrats can utilize.  Second, Rep. Davis provides what we believe is a very accurate assessment of the state of the political landscape today.    

   Below are key excerpts from Rep. Davis’ presentation.  We highlight his critical observations.  This makes for long reading, but every Democrat will have a better appreciation of the 2008 election from this must read.   

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A. The GOP Brand 

   Members instinctively understand that the Republican brand is in the trash can. I've often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf. . . . 

   Democrats are winning by default. They have not made the sale to swing voters but independents know they do not want us!  . . .  

2.   The President and Congress 

   As the head figure of the Republican brand. President Bush continues to flounder. Although other Presidents have experienced low points that are almost as bad, this President's lower ratings have been sustained over a long period of time. The mold has hardened which is expressed by the very positive and very negative numbers. ''Very negative" ratings indicate and fuel energy on the ground to "throw the bums out", as expressed in turnout, volunteers and cash raised.  . . .  

   Democrats are not winning, we are losing. A strategy of waiting for Democrats to fumble the ball is high risk at this point. Congressional disapproval ratings give us some opening to make the point that Democrats aren't getting the job done. However, antipathy toward President Bush and the GOP brand make this a tall order. Failure to fundamentally change the GOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status. Change is the order of the day and voters are willing to gamble on change against a party and President they dislike intensely. 

B. Turnout and Registration 

   Given the strong intensity to the President and the Republican brand, turnout generation is much easier for Democrats than Republicans. The old adage "people vote against" has spurred off-year election gains for Democrats in New Jersey, Virginia and Kentucky (although a flawed Gubernatorial candidate probably had more to do with a decisive loss in the Blue Grass state). Conversely, the election of Bobby Jindal, in Louisiana, had more to do with state issues than the National agenda. 

   Voter turnout in Presidential primaries has been overwhelmingly Democratic. In states where Independents and Republicans can choose their ballot in an "open primary" voters are opting for the Democratic ballot. . . .  

   Moreover, Democrats are out registering Republicans in record numbers. In California, Democratic registration has jumped from 42.7% to 43.5% over the past six months. This is a 469,000 gain from 2004, while the GOP has lost 109,000 voters. . . .  

   In Colorado, over the past four months, Democrats have gained 7,000 voters, Independents have gained 5,000 voters and the GOP has gained 2,000 voters. In Wyoming, over the last six weeks, Democrats gained 4%, while Republicans dropped registration. From Nevada to Pennsylvania, Democratic registration continues to significantly outpace the GOP. 

C. The Race for Money 

   Nowhere is the Democratic surge more demonstrable than in the fundraising totals. From the Presidential race to the Courthouse, Democratic contributors are opening up their checkbooks in record amounts. . . .  

Net roots and money from the internet have swelled Democratic coffers, from the Obama campaign, to their Red to Blue programs, giving Democrats huge fundraising advantages across the board. Much of this is fueled by a strong Democratic desire to seize power after eight years of Bush and Cheney, coupled with a strong disappointment among grass roots Republicans at the party's performance in office. Governance is a tough business requiring tough choices and holding together coalitions of economic and social conservatives is difficult to sustain.   

Immigration pits our business wing against our grass roots wing. The War has turned many educated, affluent Republicans away. Spending priorities, scandals, gas prices and home value declines leave little for Republicans to be enthused over, particularly when our ability to draw issue lines and force choices by Democrats is frustrated by House Rules, inarticulate and unfocused national leadership and finger pointing.  . . .  

D. The McCain/Obama Factor 

   Before Republicans get too carried away with the fact that, even though things are bad. we may win the Presidency and that can rescue us, a few observations about coattails are in order. . . .  

   This year, to the extent McCain is elected, it will be in spite of his party's brand name. McCain has his own branding and it is not consistent with Congressional Republican branding. . . .

 E.  Cultural Alignments 

   Cultural attitudes shape voter attitudes, and the urbane Swarthmore educated Dukakis and Yalie, John Kerry, lost handily in middle America. Cultural issues have always been a part of the American political landscape, emerging, at times, in starkly partisan alignments.  . . .  

   Barrack Obama is a quintessential cultural liberal - the candidate of Hyde Park, the University of Chicago and Harvard. Educated upscale voters from both parties, as well as independents of similar backgrounds, identify with his style and rhetoric. Blue collar voters aren't so sure. 

   Exit polls in West Virginia showed that two thirds of Clinton supporters were unwilling to commit to Obama in the fall - and that's just among Democrats! With an economy perceived to be failing, these voters should be easy prey to ANY Democrat, but they're not. Herein lies the key for the McCain campaign, and potentially for alert Republican Congressional candidates. 

   Over the last twelve years, partisan alignments have moved away from wealth and economics to cultural and social issues. . . .  

   Obama's appeal is to the liberal cultural base of the Democratic Party, not to its liberal economic base. His connection to high income suburbs, the granola belt and college towns, is strong, but his connection to poorer whites, rural voters and other voters who may be susceptible to the Democrats' message on the economy is not yet demonstrated. Conservative value voters are a long way from being sold on Obama, even while they feel pinched by global trade, a soft housing market and high gas prices. But Republicans have to hold these voters to have any chance in 2008.  . . .   

   2008 is different. Demographically, the nation is more diverse and more urbanized than in 2004. The Iraq war has proved to be the ultimate cultural issue, fueling and giving oxygen to the cultural left, as well as planting doubts in many swing voters minds about the direction of the country. The economy is softening and gas prices are skyrocketing, giving Obama an opening to court conservative value voters who are hurting economically. . . .  

   Moreover. John McCain is not a polarizing figure. One could argue he is the opposite - moderate, bi-partisan, and unifying, which makes his claim on value voters different from Bush. How these lunch-bucket Democrats, who are culturally more conservative, vote this fall is the key to victory.  . . .  

 The coalition of cultural liberals and African Americans assembled by Obama has left out vast swaths of middle Americans concerned about the war, gas prices and the economy. But they are hardly ready to embrace McCain, let alone Congressional Republicans. Harsh cultural appeals on abortion and guns may have less to do with bringing these Democrats and Independents on board, than reassuring them that we have answers to these other issues. . . .   

   [T]his election is about independent voters. Even if we get every Republican out to vote, we lose without Independents, forget the Democrats. They've been waiting to get back since the Florida recount. It's all about the Independents . . . .  

The Next Steps

 Gas prices   

   There is no immediate relief in sight. Democrats not only have no answers, they are part of the problem. Nigeria and Cuba are ready to drill off our shores, but Congressional Democrats say no. ANWAR and oil shale offer new sources, but environmentalists say no. At $124 per barrel, who are we kidding?  

   The President should send an emergency energy package to Congress and dare them to act. It should include some global warming initiatives to keep it credible, such as government's utilization of green buildings and use of energy efficient vehicles. But it should also include offshore energy exploration and oil shale production, plus more long-term research dollars on alternative fuels, such as cellulosic and wind and extended tax breaks for energy efficiency. It could or could not offer immediate tax relief at the pump. You don't want it to be too gimmicky. But, it puts us on offense and spotlights Democratic failures. And, it gives voters some hope that somebody is doing something. 

Home Values  

   You have to hand it to Barney Frank. He produced a bill that gives homeowners hope. Never mind that it puts the government on the hook for $300 billion in loan guarantees and doesn't solve the problem. What is our reaction? Our leaders walk out of a White House/GOP conference with the President and vow to uphold a veto! That says a lot. Where is our proposal? . . .  

 Immigration  

   At least the Republican Congress reported out immigration bills in each Chamber (though vastly different). The Democrats have just punted. Rather than deal with a tough issue, they punt. This can be a gift horse. 

   Immigration is one of the most polarizing issues of our time. Hispanics and business leaders want reform. Lou Dobbs wants reform. Taxpayers want reform. Democrats get away with doing nothing because we're afraid of the issue.

   Remember. Hispanic voters are a swing group in this election and future elections. John McCain, being from a border state, may be out of sync with many Republicans but he has standing among Hispanics. Barrack Obama has not made the sale to Hispanic voters. Thus, this issue is a tar baby for anyone who touches it, with land mines everywhere. But the Democrats control Congress and are doing nothing. This needs to be highlighted. Put the onus on them to produce a bill. Put them on defense. 

 American Competitiveness  

   When Obama says he'll renegotiate NAFTA, his culturally liberal supporters near Central park or Menlo Park cringe. They know better!  

   Bill Gates was shocked that 90% of Republicans supported free trade, while less than 20% of Democratic members do. If you want to fix the economy, let's talk about the Democratic Congress's head in the sand approach to globalization. The public hates Congress. Why don't they associate Democrats with it?

Stock Market

   Barrack Obama wants to move Capital Gains taxes to 25%. In a floundering stock market that will chase away investment, not attract capital. We should continue to hammer away at the Democrat's tax proposals. Their numbers don't add up; they won't help the economy; and middle America is in no mood for tax hikes. . . .   

War on Terror  

   We must continue to hammer on FISA every chance we get. Terrorism ranks sixth today as an issue, but one incident can propel it to first. Democrats will blame Bush for any problems, so it is important that the record on these issues be clear and concise. 

    FISA, intelligence funding, border security, etc. are critical and the lines between protecting our citizens and preserving privacy will crumble with a major incident. . . .  

 Health Care 

   One issue of concern to all Americans is Health Care. . . .   

   Health Care is the weakest issue for Republicans. After all, aren't we the ones who opposed extending health care to children of the working poor (S-CHIP)? Never mind the policy arguments. Voters have made their choice. What we have not done is talk about the Democratic failings in Health Care. They control Congress. Their presidential candidates claim they want everyone covered.    

   Where's the program? The Democrats, outside of S-CHIP extension, have really done nothing for Health Care. . . .

Conclusion 

   John McCain helps. He doesn't carry anyone over the Finish line, but he doesn't drag anyone down.   

   In all, the lineup favors Democratic gains and that is before the Democratic money pours in to an expanded playing field. The major variables include: (I) the issues matrix, in October; (2) the Presidential race; (3) the ability to fund key races; (4) spending smartly; and (5) resurrecting the Republican Congressional brand (for open and challenger seats) and having incumbents' personalized branding in their own districts. 

Presidential Race 

   We won't win any appreciable black vote and very little cultural liberal votes, against Obama. So let’s focus on shoring up our base: social conservatives; lunch bucket blue collar whites; Hispanics (they are in play for McCain); and military veterans.  

   McCain may lose, but he's not likely to collapse, especially in our targeted districts. Efforts in the South, border states and Arizona, to attach him to us (particularly in challenge and open seats), is important. 

Resurrecting the Brand 

   Probably the most difficult and most important initiative we can take, over the next six months, is restoring the GOP brand name, so that it is not an albatross to our candidates. If leadership feels that it is too difficult a task, at least create an atmosphere where our candidates can brand themselves. 

   We have to have a party reputation that allows us to compete nationally and especially in swing districts. Democrats have gone out of their way to attract the pro-gun, pro-life candidates where it suits them. However, that dissonance with an Obama candidacy and an Obama Presidency, should it occur, offers us opportunities. 

   Staying on offense on the key issues is critical to our success and having a President working with us to pin the tail on a Democratic Congress can give us opportunities that do not appear today.   . . .  

   Of course, Democrats running in tandem with Obama, particularly in blue collar and southern districts, create their own exposures, but without a major faux pas by the candidate or a major retooling by Congressional Republicans. McCain's coattails will be short. 

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   On Wednesday, TPJ will offer its program for Democrats.  We believe that the three straight special Congressional losses by Republicans are indeed canaries in the political coal mine.  

                        CASTRATED                 

   The recent special Congressional election in the Mississippi 1^st is a text book example of the importance and impact of Bush’s historically low public approval ratings.  Democrats recaptured this Republican held District; a District that Party held since Gingrich’s 1994 Republican “revolution.”  The victory is the third consecutive special Congressional election Democrats have won since January, 2008.  

   The Democratic victory is significant for a number of reasons: 

1.   Republicans attempted to tie Democrat Travis Childers to Sen. Obama and Rev. Wright. Republican ads also tied Childers to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with the theme that Congressional Democrats are simply too liberal.   
 

2.   As the campaign closed, national Republicans brought in VP Cheney to motivate the Republican base.  Other top Republicans were called in as well.  They failed to positively influence the result.  
 

3.    President Bush delivered a robo call to Republican households in the District during the final days imploring the Party faithful to retain a Republican in this District.  Bush’s intervention failed.  

   According to Cook Report, this District has as PVI of +10, the highest Republican performing Congressional District Democrats have won this year. It is a District that conventional political wisdom dictates Republicans would hold. They lost.   

   Republicans lost, in part, because Bush no longer enjoys public confidence.  Having lost public trust, he was unable to convince citizens of Mississippi to retain a Republican. If Bush cannot help Republicans in the Mississippi 1^st, it is difficult to fathom where he might be effective for the Republicans in the General Election.   

  As Bush’s average approval rating remains below 30% in the first five polls released in May and the spread between approval/disapproval remains above 35%, he is politically castrated.  In this context, it is understandable that Sen. McCain, the presumptive Republican, is openly attacking Bush on global warming.  We expect that McCain will find even more issues he will use to distance himself from Bush.  Also look for more Republicans to separate themselves from Bush, realizing now that he is indeed a millstone around the neck of the Republican Party.  There simply may not be enough issues to accomplish the separation.