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UPDATED: MAY 28, 2008
SPEED BUMP
Republicans have hit a financial speed bump. With the Republican “brand” not bringing in the level of contributions of past years, Republicans are hard pressed to raise sufficient funds to manage all of their open seats.
The story:
The number of Republicans leaving Congress will cost the GOP millions of dollars in party-building funds for the fall congressional elections, campaign-finance records show.
Of the 32 Republicans who have resigned or announced plans to retire, 26 have political action committees known as leadership PACs — which members of Congress typically use to make donations to colleagues facing tough campaigns. Those 26 PACs raised $17 million in the last campaign cycle, but only $5.3 million for this election, a USA TODAY analysis of the latest campaign reports filed in March and April shows.
The Republican bump is a bit higher. NY Republican Congressman Vito Fossella, a six term Republican, will not seek reelection because of the revelation that he had a child by an extramarital affair:
Fossella, who represents Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, is the 30th Republican to announce they would not seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
As a result, Democrats, who hold a 236-199 majority in the House, could see gains in the November election.
Fossella's sudden downfall began soon after midnight on May 1, when he ran a red light in Alexandria, Virginia and was stopped by police. A breath test put his blood-alcohol level at 0.17 percent, more than double the state's legal limit, according to his arrest report.
The congressman apologized the next day for what he said was "an error in judgment."
A week later, the 43-year-old, married Fossella was apologizing again to his family and constituents because of his secret extramarital affair with Laura Fay.
Republicans have failed to recruit three “A-list” candidates to replace Fossella, all of whom turned down their Party’s offer to run. With a “B-list” candidate, Republicans face the alternative choices of spending millions of dollars in an attempt to hold the seat or surrender another District to Democrats.
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UPDATED: MAY 25, 2008MILLSTONE
What does public repudiation of Bush mean for the Republican Party in November? Bush’s historically low public approval rating means that he will not be a factor in campaigning for the Republican ticket. It also means that Bush’s ability to raise funds for the Republican Party will also be diminished.
A Bush fundraising event for McCain in Arizona, traditionally Republican territory, is being moved from a public forum to a private form. Why? The multiple choice reasons:
“Sources familiar with the situation said
the Bush-McCain event was not selling enough tickets to fill the Convention
Center space . . . “
“[T]here were concerns about more anti-war
protesters showing up outside the venue than attending the fundraiser
inside.”
“Another source said there were concerns about the media covering the event.”
TPJ would add a fourth and fifth choices;
4. McCain does not want public coverage of him with the unpopular President he supports and
5. All of the above.
Democrats have worked hard and successfully to educate Americans about the failed policies of the Republican Party. The results of that public debate will pay dividends in the General Election by keeping Bush largely on the sidelines and a millstone around the neck of Republican candidates everywhere.
MUST READ
Democrats have a problem with White middle class voters. In 2008, the implications of that problem are most clearly reflected in Sen. Obama’s campaign. However, lack of support among White voters did not start with Sen. Obama; and explaining the problem in the context of the allegations of “racism” in the 2008 campaign obfuscates the important dynamics of what is occurring with hyperbole.
One chart demonstrates the long standing problem:
Figure 1. Trend in Democratic Identification among White Voters by Occupational Status
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Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz coauthor an important analysis. The authors succinctly identify the challenges for Democrats:
[T]he white working class, particularly under the broad education and occupation based definitions, will remain a substantial force in American society and politics even as it continues to decline. Indeed, the 2020 estimates above may, if anything, be underestimating white working class density in that year, since the rates of decline used here seem more likely to be too high than too low. Looking forward, then, what challenges is this still-substantial group of voters likely to present to our political parties?
For the Democrats, the electoral challenge will be to keep their deficit among white working class (non-college-educated) voters as close to single digits as possible. Allowing the GOP to run up super-majorities among these voters will remain a recipe for electoral defeat for many election cycles to come. This suggests Democrats need a way of connecting with the white working class that has mostly been lacking for 40 years.
The article is long, but critical to understanding strategies needed by the Democratic Party at all levels. The recommendations in the report could be the difference between Democrats creating a true majority Party or remaining the loyal opposition. A must read. Download the file at the hyperlink below:
The Decline of the White Working Class
and the Rise of a Mass Upper Middle Class
Last Update: 05/31/2008
