By The Numbers

· Those “disapproving” Bush’s performance exceeds those “approving” in all polls; a first.

· Bush’s 30 day average is clearly into negative territory; albeit, only slightly (-2.57%).

· Every poll reported this week show the approval rate dropping from their respective previous poll and those disapproving rising from the previous poll.

· Both CBS and News week show the spread of “disapprove” over “approve” in double digits. This spread is double any other polls, suggesting these two poll results are aberrations.

· Fox is the only poll in which the spread is positive. It is 8% higher than any other poll, suggesting its results are overstated for Bush.

Averaging the last three Gallup polls over the last 30 days produces a -2.00% spread, right on the TPJ 30 day average. Take it to the bank: Bush’s vulnerability is increasing. Every poll in the last 30 days, including Fox, shows Bush below 50%. Not where an incumbent wants to be.

BUSH POLLS
BUSH POLLS
Poll	Date	Approve	Disapprove	Spread

30 Day Average		45.79%	48.36%	-2.57%
60 Day Average		47.77%	47.15%	0.62%

Quinnipiac University	5/18 - 5/24	45%	50%	-5%
Gallup	5/21 - 5/23	47%	49%	-2%
ABC News/Wash Post	5/20 - 5/23	47%	50%	-3%
CBS/New York Times	5/20 - 5/23	41%	52%	-11%
Fox	5/18 - 5/19	48%	43%	5%
Newsweek	5/13 - 5/14	42%	52%	-10%
Time/CNN	5/12 - 5/13	46%	49%	-3%
CBS/New York Times	11-May	44%	49%	-5%
Gallup	5/7 - 5/9	46%	51%	-5%
Pew	5/3 - 5/9	44%	48%	-4%
Fox	5/4 - 5/5	49%	43%	6%
Gallup	5/2 - 5/4	49%	48%	1%
NBC/Wall Street Journal	5/1 - 5/3	47%	46%	1%
Quinnipiac University	4/26 - 5/3	46%	47%	-1%
CBS/New York Times	4/23 - 4/27	46%	47%	-1%
Pew	4/21 - 4/25	48%	43%	5%
Fox	4/21 - 4/22	50%	44%	6%
Gallup/CNN/USA	4/16 - 4/18	52%	45%	7%
ABC News/Wash Post	4/15 - 4/18	51%	47%	4%
Zogby(#)	4/15 - 4/17	47%	52%	-5%
Harris	4/8 - 4/15	48%	51%	-3%
Annenberg	4/1 - 4/14	52%	44%	8%
Newsweek	4/8 - 4/9	49%	45%	4%
Newsweek	4/8 - 4/9	49%	45%	4%
Time/CNN	8-Apr	49%	47%	2%
Gallup	4/5 - 4/8	52%	45%	7%
Fox	4/6 - 4/7	49%	44%	5%
Associated Press	4/5 - 4/7	48%	50%	-2%
Zogby(#)	4/1 - 4/3	47%	53%	-6%
Pew	4/1 - 4/4	43%	47%	-4%
CBS/New York Times	3/30 - 4/1	49%	44%	5%

(#)Zogby surveys "likely voters." New polls since last TPJ publication are highlighted in blue.

Even though Americans are growing disenchanted with Bush’s performance in office, the head to head polls still reflect a close race.

A number of national pollsters indicate Democrats should not be concerned; the election is a referendum on the incumbent President. With Bush’s approval ratings, above, trending down, the gurus predict Kerry’s performance will improve.

TPJ is more skeptical and ventures a word of caution for those Democrats who may be exuberant over the recent poll numbers. While Bush’s numbers are trending down; 6 polls in the last 30 days have Bush leading, 6 polls have Sen. Kerry leading and 3 polls show the race as even.

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL POLLS
	DATE	BUSH	KERRY	NADER	SPREAD
	DATE	BUSH	KERRY	NADER	SPREAD


Quinipiac	5/18 - 5/24	43%	42%	6%	-1%
CNN/Gallup	5/21 - 5/23	46%	47%	4%	1%
ABC/Washington Post	5/20 - 5/23	46%	46%	4%	0%
CBS News	5/20 - 5/23	41%	49%	3%	8%
Fox	5/18 - 5/19	40%	40%	3%	0%
Newsweek	5/13 - 5/14	42%	43%	5%	1%
Time/CNN	5/12 - 5/13	44%	49%	5%	5%
CNN/Gallup	5/7 - 5/9	47%	45%	5%	-2%
Pew	5/3 - 5/9	43%	46%	6%	3%
Investor's Business	5/2 - 5/6	46%	41%	5%	-5%
American Research	5/3 - 5/6	44%	45%	4%	1%
Fox	5/4 - 5/5	44%	41%		-3%
Gallup	5/2 - 5/4	47%	47%	3%	0%
NBC/Wallstreet Journal	5/1 - 5/3	46%	42%	5%	-4%
Quinipiac	4/26 - 5/3	43%	40%	6%	-3%
CBS News	4/23 - 4/27	43%	41%	5%	-2%
Marist College	4/20 - 4/23	47%	43%	5%	-4%
Fox	4/21 - 4/22	42%	40%	2%	-2%
Investor's Business	4/16 - 4/22	44%	40%	3%	-4%
CNN/Gallup	4/16 - 4/18	50%	44%	4%	-6%
ABC/Washington Post	4/15/ - 4/18	48%	43%	6%	-5%
Zogby	4/15 - 4/17	45%	45%	3%	0%
Harris Poll	4/8 - 4/15	43%	43%	9%	0%
Newsweek	4/8 to 4/9	42%	46%	4%	4%
American Research	4/6 to 4/9	43%	48%	2%	5%
Zogby	4/1 to 4/4	46%	45%	3%	-1%
CBS News	3/30 to 4/1	43%	48%	3%	5%
LA Times	4-Mar	44%	47%	4%	3%
CNN/Gallup	3/26 to 3/28	49%	45%	4%	-4%
Pew	3/22 to 3/28	44%	43%	6%	-1%
Newsweek	3/25 to 3/26	45%	43%	5%	-2%
States highlighted in blue indicate poll issued during past week.

As noted above, TPJ warns against excessive exuberance over the poll numbers. Political winds change directions quickly.

Polls over the past few months suggest that Bush and Sen. Kerry are holding their respective Party base support and that independents are leaning toward Sen. Kerry. That is certainly welcome news.

But, Bush has had several months of devastating failures. Obviously, the news from Iraq has been horrid for the President. Osama has not been captured. While the economy is growing again, job growth has not been as vigorous as Bush promised. Most polls gauging public attitudes on issues show Bush trending downward on every issue.

Despite the bad news, the Republican base support for Bush remains relatively constant; an impressive feat. At some point, the daily headlines will “cool.” For example, the economy continues to grow, news that Bush will continue to tout. Bush is negotiating with the UN over restoring a government in Iraq. If there is success on that front, expect Bush’s polling numbers to rise.

· After all, the election is still over five months away, the lead may change hands again several times, and Kerry's position, while strong, is hardly unassailable.

· Democrats tend to go from being more depressed than they should be by political trends (oh no, Kerry's only running even with Bush; he should be ahead by 10 points; disaster looms!!) to being excessively optimistic (Kerry's ahead, Bush is sinking fast--Kerry's going to win by a landslide!!)