TURNING NC BLUE 

   Civitas is out with a new poll; McCain 43, Obama 40.  The 3% margin with a large number of undecided voters, 15%, is very consistent with other polling from June.  According to Civitas, Obama continues to lag McCain primarily because Obama’s base support from Democrats is still below 65% while McCain’s Republican base is closer to 75%: 

  The chart below summarizes NC polling to date:                                                

   At the start of the election season, TPJ outlined its strategy for TURNING NC BLUE: 

1.  Register 200,000 net new voters;
    

2. Awake 200,000 “sleeping” Democrats; those who have not voted recently;
    

3. Improve performance among Independents to no worse than 48% Democrat, 52% Republican; and
    

4. Narrow Party crossover losses from 2004 levels when 16% of Democrats voted Republican while only 4% of Republicans voted Democratic, a spread of 12%.

Implicit in TPJ’s analysis is that Democratic turnout will be 46% of voters in November with Republicans at about 33% and Unaffiliated at about 21%.

   Where does Obama stand today?

1. Democrats will register 200,000 net new voters by October 10^th. The number may be closer to 225,000 to 250,000 and with a statewide effort the number could approach 300,000.
    

2. Obama’s ground game in NC is growing and there is every reason to believe that Democrats have both the organization and enthusiasm to increase the percent of Democrats voting in November, even among “sleeping” Democrats.
    

3. While Obama is losing 21% of all Democrats, an increase from 2004; Civitas has Obama winning 11% of Republicans, an improvement for Democrats from 2004.  The spread has decreased from 12% in 2004 to a current 10%.

Simply stated, Obama is moving towards TPJ’s projected benchmarks and NC is obviously competitive.  The election will turn on the 15% undecided voters, but other keys will play an important role.  They are:

1. Every new registered Democrat is very important.  If Democrats can register 300,000, the odds of Obama winning NC improve significantly.
    

2. Obama is demonstrating the ability to improve performance among Unaffiliated voters even further.  Another 2% to 5% improvement represents a split of the Unaffiliated voters when Sen. Kerry lost that group by 12% in 2004.
    

3. Democrats have to talk with the 21% of the Party who are reporting that they will not vote for Obama.  More Democrats have to come home.

   Who are the Undecided voters that hold the election in their hands?  Civitas does not publish its internal crosstabs.  Public Policy Polling does.  Their June poll provides some basic guidance as to the undecided voters:

1. Slightly more undecided voters are women than men.
    

2.  A plurality are Unaffiliated voters; some 40%, followed by Democrats and slightly less Republicans.
    

3. The vast majority are white.
    

4. The distribution among age groups is relatively consistent with a slight increase among those over age 65.
    

5. Most live west of I-85 with a concentration in northeastern North Carolina.

TPJ’s analysis reinforces a growing reality over the past three months.  The November election is the Democrats’ election to win or lose.  The question is whether having lost every Presidential election since Carter Democrats have the drive to close the victory.   Victory lies in the fundamentals; voter registration, undecided voter persuasion and GOTV.

                        THE 10^TH CONGRESSIONAL

   Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry has loaned his campaign $175,000.  It is some indication that his fundraising is lagging his current revenue needs:

Democrat Daniel Johnson is mounting a credible campaign and this race could be a 2008 surprise.

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                        DO YOU BELIEVE?  

   Do you believe that Democrats can TURN NC BLUE in November?  Some of TPJ’s friends and associates pay lip service to the idea that Democrats can win NC for Obama in November, but usually conclude the conversation with a rendition that at least Obama’s campaign here may force McCain spend resources here as well. In our view that translates into a tacit admission they do not really think Obama can win but NC Democrats might scare the Republicans into spending money to defend the State.  

   Nino Saviano, a North Carolina-based Republican political strategist, from western North Carolina is ringing the alarm bell for Republicans.  His clarion warning to Republicans is a wakeup call to Democrats that NC can be won.  

   A full reading of Saviano’s article appearing in the Asheville Citizen-Times is a must read for all Democrats.  Key excerpts (emphasis added):   

Now, let’s go out and TURN NC BLUE. 

                        TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARD 

   Cumberland, Mitchell and Mecklenburg Democrats are this week’s recipients of TPJ’S TURNING NC BLUE AWARDS.   TPJ extends kudos and our victory cup award to these County Party organizations for achieving TPJ’s voter registration goals for 2008.  

   The roll of counties winning TPJ’s TURNING NC BLUE AWARDS to date appear below ranked by their current percentage standing over 100% of their goal.  Forsyth County, Durham County and Cabarrus counties were win, place and show respectively in crossing their thresholds for NC Democrats to achieve 200,000 net new voter registrations.   

   NC Democrats still have a way to go to register 200,000 net, new registrations in 2008.  So, Cumberland, Mitchell and Mecklenburg Democrats – double it.     

   Which county will be next receiving TPJ’s TURNING NORTH CAROLINA BLUE AWARD? Check out the article below for clues.  

            87 DAYS AND COUNTING           

   Democrats had another solid week of voter registration performance, registering 8,429.  TPJ started the election cycle predicting that Democrats would need at least 200,000 net new voter registrations to help elect Sen. Obama President.  If Democrats maintain voter registrations at the current weekly rates, TPJ’s target will be exceeded in approximately 42 days, well in advance of the October 10, 2008 regular registration deadline. 

   This week’s numbers: