"FOR THE PRESERVATION AND PROMOTION OF CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY"
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UPDATED: JUL 23, 2008
GAS Sen. Obama is surprisingly competitive in Nevada. Two reasons may be playing a role; 1) the Republican Party is divided within the State and 2) Republicans seem to have run out of gas. The story: Citing a lack of interest, the Nevada Republican Party has called off its state convention and will instead pick its delegates to the national convention by private conference call. The state party broke up its original convention in April when supporters of Ron Paul hijacked the proceedings and tried to elect delegates for their candidate to the national GOP convention in September. Party officials tried to reconvene on July 26, but they needed a quorum of 675 and received only 300 RSVPs, according to local reports. “With so many people concerned about the economy, it simply wouldn’t be fair for us to ask delegates from all over the state to spend money to attend a convention if we know that a quorum won’t be present,” state party Chairwoman Sue Lowden said in a release. The news provides further evidence of a fractured and unenthusiastic Republican Party in some parts of the country. Last week, the GOP nominee in a North Carolina congressional race suspended his campaign while he confronted fissures in his own party. Polling suggests a significant “enthusiasm gap” on the part of Republican voters this year, which has left the party’s candidate, Sen. John McCain, trailing Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential contest. The lack of Republican motivation is not limited to Nevada. Florida is another example among many states:
An escalating number of
voters registering as Democrats is providing evidence that the 2008
election could produce a wave of support for
Barack Obama — and trigger a decades-long shift of party allegiance
that could affect elections for a generation.
Democrats said Friday
it's proof of what they have been seeing for months. Democrats are winning the voter registration phase of the campaign nationally. Larry Sabato, The Crystal Ball (a TPJ favorite) provides the overview: In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have scored perceptible gains since the presidential election of 2004 while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million. To be sure, the changes have taken place within a huge pool of voters that totals 96 million in the party registration states. In short, even with the loss of nearly a million voters, the number of registered Republicans is still 97 percent as large as it was at the time of President Bush's reelection. Yet this overall trend--Democrats up, Republicans down--is also mirrored in many of the states that already have been identified as battlegrounds for 2008. And with only a comparative handful of votes needed to swing key states such as Iowa and Nevada the Democrats' way, the latest registration numbers can only fuel the party's considerable optimism. Sabato provides the detailed numbers in the battleground state, and his full analysis is an important read. Public attention will turn to the election starting with the Democratic Party convention in late August. If Democrats catch the excitement and translate that into new voters at the polls, 2008 could be a banner year for Democrats at every level. SEX AND THE CITY Single women are prime targets for the Democratic Party as this recent overview denotes: Unmarried women -- often dubbed the "Sex and the City" vote -- overwhelmingly support Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in key battleground states, according to a recent poll. Single, divorced, separated, and widowed women voters in 14 battleground states favor the presumptive Democratic nominee over his Republican rival by 61 to 29 percent, according to a Democratic poll commissioned for Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund , an advocacy group for unmarried women voters. Those findings jibe with the latest ABC News poll released in July, which found Obama leading McCain nationally among unmarried women voters 59 to 32 percent. "Unmarried women are to progressives what evangelicals are to the conservative movement," Page Gardner, founder and president of Women's Voices Women Votes, told ABCNews.com. Democrats should commit Page Gardner’s quote to memory and go out and register every single woman possible. Why? In 2004 there were 44.8 million single women in the United States:
52% voted
(23.4 million) The simple message is that Democrats are leaving millions of potential votes on the table. It could be the difference between victory and defeat. _____________________________________________ UPDATED: JUL 20, 2008PAYBACK The national media is starting to connect the effects of Republican economic policy during the Bush administration to the growing economic downturn in the United States. Republican policy is generally encapsulated in the now famous slogan, “free markets,” denoting the philosophy that capitalist markets should be unregulated by government and regulates themselves based upon economic principles. David J. Lynch, USA Today, provides a compelling summary of the consequences of that Republican policy and the reckoning imposed on Americans. The highlights: This is no ordinary economic crisis, and it won't be over anytime soon. In fact, problems are multiplying. A year ago, the financial virus seemed confined to subprime mortgages, loans given to those with less-than-perfect credit. Now, much of the banking system appears rickety, and the U.S. economy has slowed to a crawl. But thanks to robust demand from still-growing countries such as China, the prices of commodities from oil to food have soared — hitting Americans from the gas pump to the grocery checkout. "There's no hope of an early recovery at this point," says economist Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University. "The best-case scenario is we have a long but mild recession — and that's the best-case scenario." . . . The economy is going through what analysts call "deleveraging," a fancy way of saying debt repayment. During the housing boom, Americans and their financial institutions borrowed way too much money. Now the bills are coming due — economywide. And that's what is making things so tough in so many different ways. "It's not like your standard business cycle recession. … The trouble with this deleveraging recession is it's self-reinforcing. … I don't like to be pessimistic, but the relentless flow of bad news is just something we're going to have to get used to," says George Magnus, senior economic adviser for UBS in London. . . . Will more banks follow IndyMac, the Pasadena, Calif.-based bank taken over by regulators this week, into the arms of federal authorities? Almost certainly. . . . One thing is clear: Government involvement in the financial system is expanding in ways that even the most fervent socialist could only have imagined one year ago. This week's federal proposal to help mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including opening the door to future government ownership stakes in the firms, is an "earthshaking event," Rogoff says. And not an isolated one. It comes after the Federal Reserve has stretched its legal mandate and found creative ways to grease the financial system's levers. In March, the Fed midwived the sale of investment bank Bear Stearns to rival JPMorgan Chase in a bid to head off broader problems. An era marked by regulators' light touch is at an end. "The system got carried away with financial innovation or financial engineering," El-Erian says. "Regulators didn't recognize how quickly things were moving. Now they're catching up." Reasonable government regulation will return to the American economy under an Obama administration. McCain, even as the United States was heading further into economic turmoil, advocated more of the same policies that led to the growing crisis: U.S. Sen. John McCain [stressed] support for free trade and the free market as he heads into the general election. . . . He said lower taxes and less regulation are needed, and he prefers consumer and private sector policies to universal health plans backed by Obama and Clinton. The fundamental differences between the economic philosophies of unregulated markets and reasonable government regulations partly explain the views of McCain’s former chief economic advisor, Phil Graam. In a stunning interview Gramm said: that the United States was only in a “mental recession” and that it had become a “nation of whiners.” Gramm’s assessments come even as the US housing market spirals downward: U.S. foreclosure filings increased 53 percent in June from a year earlier and bank seizures rose the most on record as deteriorating property values and higher rates on adjustable mortgages forced more people to give up their homes. More than 252,000 properties, or one in 501 U.S. households, entered a stage of the foreclosure process, RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said today in a statement. Bank seizures rose 171 percent, the most since the Irvine, California-based company began tracking statistics on default notices, warnings of a scheduled auction and repossessions in January 2005. . . . Foreclosure activity is the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s, said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing. Home prices, which fell the most on record in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, have created a cycle where shrinking equity drives homeowners into foreclosure, which in turn further pushes down home prices, Sharga said. Gramm is simply stating that the United States economy, unregulated, is functioning as it should. For example, from the Republican view point of “free markets,” the malignant consequences of the housing bubble burst are simply the markets functioning as they should. Gramm has resigned from the McCain campaign and McCain has disavowed Gramm’s statements. But, McCain’s espoused philosophy is no different than Gramm – or the Republican Party generally. Gramm simply had the fortitude to engage in a little “straight talk” to Americans; McCain simply wants to avoid the political consequences. ELECTORAL COLLEGE TPJ updates our view of the current standing of the Electoral College each week. The chart below rates each state based upon the average of all publicly released polls for the particular State. In our opinion, averaging is the most accurate predictor of performance at this stage of the election cycle but is not reflective of actual outcomes in November. We define the categories Toss Up, Leaning, Likely and Safe as follows:
We apply these criteria stringently, without factoring trends, regression analysis or any other factors. Leaning states are defined more broadly than Likely or Safe states in the early stages of the election because early polling is not as reliable for predicting November outcomes compared to polling in September. The criteria will be adjusted to narrower ranges to reflect the more predictive polling. The states are color coded; blue, representing states Sen. Kerry won in 2004 and red, states Bush won in 2004. The movement this week (states underlined in chart): 1. Upgraded from Leaning GOP to Safe GOP: Kansas, Louisiana and Tennessee. 2. Downgraded from Safe GOP to Likely GOP: Arkansas and Wyoming. 3. Downgraded from Likely GOP to Leans GOP: Georgia, Indiana and West Virginia. 4. Downgraded form Leans GOP to Toss Up: Montana and Nevada. 5. Downgraded from Leans Dem to Toss Up: New Mexico. 6. Downgraded from Safe Dem to Likely Dem: Massachusetts and Washington. The chart of all states:
If the election were conducted today, Senator Obama probably wins the election. However, McCain’s position has shown some improvement in the past week. The average of national polls with Obama up by 5 to 6%, outside the margins of error, several weeks ago are currently averaging a mere 2% to 3%, within the margins of error. The Evans-Novak Report (conservative) analysis of the Toss Up states: Colorado (9): Obama still hasn't gotten close to 50% in most Colorado polls, which is bad news for him. The good news for Obama is that the GOP brand here is very unpopular, as exemplified by the U.S. Senate race, which could become a Democratic blow-out. Add in the rock-concert-like convention in Denver, and this state tilts towards Obama. Montana (3): It sounds strange at first, but Montana is in play. Obama leads in the polls, and Democrats there are generally doing much better than Republicans. The Republicans' loss of their limited-government reputation hurts McCain, while Obama's reputation as a pragmatic reformer helps. If the GOP can paint Obama as a liberal, Obama's support will dry up (except in liberal Bozeman), and McCain should win. But if McCain has to travel this state to hold onto it, that's bad news. New Mexico (5): We swing New Mexico from the McCain column to the Obama column this week, which would be enough to swing the election. McCain has represented Arizona, next door, for two decades, but that apparently hasn't endeared him to the denizens of the Land of Enchantment. Obama leads big, as in many states, but here he is posting scores near 50%. This reflects a few important factors. Most importantly, the GOP hope to win the Hispanic vote—considering McCain's pro-amnesty stance and the traditional difficulty black politicians have with Hispanics—looks like fantasy. Even in New Mexico, where the Hispanic vote may be more conservative, Democrats appear to be dominating on this score. More importantly, the GOP is truly suffering out West, not only on the Pacific Coast, but from North Dakota to Colorado to Arizona, including New Mexico. This is the consequence of the GOP abandonment of the limited government talk of 1994. Nevada (5): Nevada is looking stronger for McCain now than it was six weeks back. Zogby and Rasmussen surveys both show Obama down near 40%—and this is after he already fought hard to win the caucus there. McCain has much more upside here. Ohio (20): No matter what, Ohio can't escape its role as battleground. This year, however, McCain seems to be slightly stronger here than Bush was in 2000 and 2004. Central to McCain's success is Obama's reputation among "bitter" gun owners and religious voters—Hillary's Democrats. Much of Obama's campaign will be an outreach to bitter Ohio Democrats, but for now, the Buckeye State tilts Republican. Virginia: Virginia is possibly the most talked-about Red state to be making a pilgrimage to Blue. Given the Democratic takeover of the governorship, a Senate seat, and probably the other Senate seat, it seems fitting that Obama should have a strong play for Virginia's 13 electoral votes. But given the Southern nature of much of this state, and the high portion of undecideds, McCain should still feel confident about the commonwealth. The overarching conclusion is that the 2008 election is still to be won or lost.
Last Update: 07/23/2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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